亚太股市周四多数收高，汽车股在东京股市领涨。中国股市午盘后自低位反弹，并带动香港股市收复前一日的部分失地。
东京股市周四走高，汽车类股领涨，因为在高盛(Goldman Sachs)将汽车类股评级上调至具有吸引力的级别之后，市场预期全球汽车销售将有所回暖。日经225指数涨119.71点，至8847.01点，涨幅1.4%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨9.54点，至839.50点，涨幅1.2%。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨80点，至8830点，涨幅0.9%。
香港股市走高，汇丰控股(HSBC)领涨，受投资者对金融类股的逢低买盘以及中国大陆股市的涨势提振。恒生指数收盘涨336.01点，至15,214.46点，涨幅2.3%，股指本交易日早些时候一度升至15,222.20点的高位。中国股市收盘小幅走高，因投资者逢低吸纳金属和煤炭类股，但是围绕企业业绩的担忧限制了股指涨幅。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨0.1%，至2463.95点，盘中低点为2422.79点。深证综合指数上涨0.7%，至825.22点。
澳大利亚股市涨至三日高点，受指数基金买盘、消费必需品行业的并购活动以及瑞信(Credit Suisse)好于预期的业绩等诸多因素推动。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘上涨74.8点，至3743.0点，涨幅2.0%；盘中一度触及3745.4点。成交量放大。此前，股指自上周五触及3851.2点的五个月新高后，已连续三个交易日走低。今日的上扬扭转了市场的颓势。
新加坡股市走高，受股市近期下跌之后出现的一些逢低买盘推动，但分析师们表示，市场短期内将维持振荡。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨16.57点，至1859.98点，涨幅0.9%。大盘251至股票上涨，198只股票下跌。成交量为16亿股，低于周三的17亿股。
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Star Cruises shares surge 65 percent
Star Cruises Ltd (麗星郵輪), Asia’s biggest cruise operator, surged by a record 65 percent in Hong Kong trading after China said it would allow cruise tours to Taiwan to stop in the city.
Star Cruises rose as much as HK$0.53 to HK$1.35, the most since being listed in Hong Kong in 2000, and traded at HK$1.18 as of 2:35pm.That boosted the stock’s gains for this year to 97 percent, compared with a 10 percent climb for the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
After his meeting with Chinese authorities, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) said on Saturday in a press briefing at the Boao forum in Hainan that China would allow cruise tours from mainland ports to stop at Hong Kong en route to Taiwan.
Star Cruises said in November it plans to begin a service between Taiwan and China by the end of the first quarter of this year.
ON THE UP
The Singapore-traded shares of Star Cruises rose 26 percent, the most in two years.The cruise operator isn’t aware of the reasons for the increases in price and trading volume, it said in statements to the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges yesterday.
Calls to the Hong Kong-based office of Star Cruises weren’t immediately returned.
RESTRICTIONS RELAXEDHong Kong will relax travel restrictions for Taiwanese visitors entering the city, the city’s government said in a statement on April 15.
Taiwanese residents with a valid travel permit for China will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong for seven days.Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian should form a regional economic alliance to improve their competitiveness, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) said last week after meeting in Hong Kong with Stephen Lam (林瑞麟), the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs.Taiwan plans to start talks with China on cross-strait economic cooperation at the end of this year, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chao Chien-min (趙建民) said last week.
Source
Star Cruises rose as much as HK$0.53 to HK$1.35, the most since being listed in Hong Kong in 2000, and traded at HK$1.18 as of 2:35pm.That boosted the stock’s gains for this year to 97 percent, compared with a 10 percent climb for the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
After his meeting with Chinese authorities, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) said on Saturday in a press briefing at the Boao forum in Hainan that China would allow cruise tours from mainland ports to stop at Hong Kong en route to Taiwan.
Star Cruises said in November it plans to begin a service between Taiwan and China by the end of the first quarter of this year.
ON THE UP
The Singapore-traded shares of Star Cruises rose 26 percent, the most in two years.The cruise operator isn’t aware of the reasons for the increases in price and trading volume, it said in statements to the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges yesterday.
Calls to the Hong Kong-based office of Star Cruises weren’t immediately returned.
RESTRICTIONS RELAXEDHong Kong will relax travel restrictions for Taiwanese visitors entering the city, the city’s government said in a statement on April 15.
Taiwanese residents with a valid travel permit for China will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong for seven days.Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian should form a regional economic alliance to improve their competitiveness, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) said last week after meeting in Hong Kong with Stephen Lam (林瑞麟), the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs.Taiwan plans to start talks with China on cross-strait economic cooperation at the end of this year, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chao Chien-min (趙建民) said last week.
Source
Monday, April 20, 2009
劉兆祥: 知悉麗星(0678.HK)可星港套戥能免炒錯市
信誠證券投資部經理劉兆祥表示，今天港股先跌後升，最終是向上升穿還是跌穿上升通道的支持線，要多看一段時間，但在現時仍然以不變應萬變的心態，即靜侯突破位出現才跟隨趨勢而行。值得留意，這種完美的通道，未突破前千萬不要逆勢而行，當然是否跟隨向上，便要看投資者的膽量。
倫敦(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)匯控(0005.HK)(0005.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)似乎要跌穿上升軌，如果上升軌失守，加上近日英鎊轉弱，便有可能跌回50元水平。至於市場經常出現不理性活動，正如今早筆者所言，中央挽救，個別股份可以受惠，但要小心當中一隻是麗星郵輪(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)(0678.HK)(0678.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，股價開市即炒高，最多更升至$1.35，但隨後大幅回落。
如果炒開這隻股份的投資者到清楚，這隻股票在香港及新加坡(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)上市，因此投資者可以進行套戥活動，而且過去一段時間，都是新加坡股份高於香港超過$0.10，而今天新加坡股份並沒有上升，但香港竟然升至$1.30，較新加坡高出$0.40，自然有大量套戥者加入沽貨行列，使股價回落。
到中段時，新加坡股份才接力向上，但以收市計，香港股份仍高於新加坡$0.10，如果明白這個關係，今天便不會炒錯市。 這個世界往往是一物治一物，例如被小股東痛罵的電盈(0008.HK)(0008.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)主席李先生，卻千不該，萬不該，竟然找到這些律師代表上庭，看到這個律師的表現，真的大嘆難道香港沒有人才嗎？筆者作為電盈的股東，深信私有化的理據在電盈那邊(撤除是否有一致行動的情況)，因此一定成功，竟然出現上訴情況，已經大跌眼鏡(因為這些律師提出的理據不能服人)，而且隨時輸掉這場官司，就算能贏，仍然面對終審法院(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)，如果李先生能聘請清洪作為律師(一定不可能，因為他是英皇的御用律師)，一定在第一堂已經控制大局，贏得極精彩，怎會到目前仍未分勝負呢？
其實今次事件，正好反映監管機構沒有監管中央結算，使中央結算在代客投票前，沒有盡代理的本份，只為客戶投票而沒有計算人頭數量，才是今次問題的所在。
Source
倫敦(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)匯控(0005.HK)(0005.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)似乎要跌穿上升軌，如果上升軌失守，加上近日英鎊轉弱，便有可能跌回50元水平。至於市場經常出現不理性活動，正如今早筆者所言，中央挽救，個別股份可以受惠，但要小心當中一隻是麗星郵輪(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)(0678.HK)(0678.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，股價開市即炒高，最多更升至$1.35，但隨後大幅回落。
如果炒開這隻股份的投資者到清楚，這隻股票在香港及新加坡(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)上市，因此投資者可以進行套戥活動，而且過去一段時間，都是新加坡股份高於香港超過$0.10，而今天新加坡股份並沒有上升，但香港竟然升至$1.30，較新加坡高出$0.40，自然有大量套戥者加入沽貨行列，使股價回落。
到中段時，新加坡股份才接力向上，但以收市計，香港股份仍高於新加坡$0.10，如果明白這個關係，今天便不會炒錯市。 這個世界往往是一物治一物，例如被小股東痛罵的電盈(0008.HK)(0008.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)主席李先生，卻千不該，萬不該，竟然找到這些律師代表上庭，看到這個律師的表現，真的大嘆難道香港沒有人才嗎？筆者作為電盈的股東，深信私有化的理據在電盈那邊(撤除是否有一致行動的情況)，因此一定成功，竟然出現上訴情況，已經大跌眼鏡(因為這些律師提出的理據不能服人)，而且隨時輸掉這場官司，就算能贏，仍然面對終審法院(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)，如果李先生能聘請清洪作為律師(一定不可能，因為他是英皇的御用律師)，一定在第一堂已經控制大局，贏得極精彩，怎會到目前仍未分勝負呢？
其實今次事件，正好反映監管機構沒有監管中央結算，使中央結算在代客投票前，沒有盡代理的本份，只為客戶投票而沒有計算人頭數量，才是今次問題的所在。
Source
丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%；但股价涨势看来过度
香港时间1502（道琼斯）--丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%至1.17港元，成交额猛增至2,090万港元，而上周五成交量只有1,000股，原因是香港媒体报导，中国将推出进一步支持性措施帮助香港。措施包括，容许内地旅游团乘坐以香港为母港的邮轮，前往台湾旅游。不过股价涨势看来过度，盘中高位1.35港元不太可能再度企及，因为暂时还缺乏具体的实施细节；难以评估影响，《英文虎报》估计，新计划每年可为香港带来额外1亿港元的收入，丽星邮轮可获利多少目前可能难以估算，但股价似乎远远跑在了基本面的前面。交易屏幕上，沽售指令远超过买入指令，表明更多投资者把股价上涨看作是平仓机会而不是追高。
Source
Source
Sunday, April 19, 2009
GENTING: Resorts World Sentosa to contribute from 2010
THE GENTING GROUP will be the biggest winner and we reiterate our Buy recommendation - so said Merrill Lynch last week in a report evaluating how different sectors stand to gain with the opening of the integrated resorts.
However, FY09 may be the third year in a row that SGX-listed Genting International loses money. This will change when its integrated resort opens in Sentosa next year.
The broker believes the integrated resort will start contributing to Genting’s revenues in 2H10, turning around pretax loss of S$148.5 million in FY08 as well as expected losses this year.
With operations in Australia, USA, Malaysia, the Philippines and UK, the leading integrated resort developer has lost one cent per share in FY08 and 5 cents in FY07.Merrill Lynch's and other brokers’ consensus on Bloomberg is that Genting International will lose another 2.5 cents per share for FY09 before making half a cent per share for FY10.
Resort World @ Sentosa’s much-hyped amenities are a casino, four hotels and a 7,300-seat ballroom, as well as the first Universal Studio theme park in Southeast Asia will soft launch in the first quarter of next year.
The movie theme park will transport visitors into 6 unique movie settings and simulate experiences of movie protagonists.But be it Resorts World @ Sentosa or Marina Bay Sands, whoever opens doors first will claim first mover advantage.
After all, some gamblers may not visit both casinos, deterred by the prospect of paying entrance fees twice.Merrill Lynch estimates the gaming market in 2010 to be about S$3-4 billion.
Based on this, it projects the integrated resort’s total earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) will reach S$720 million by 2011, of which gaming will contribute 85-90%.
The integrated resorts are expected to increase tourist arrivals to Singapore by 25% from a forecasted 9 million visitors in 2009.Of this, Genting expects Universal Studios to attract about 5 million visitors a year, comprising of a 60:40 foreigner to local ratio.
These estimates appear conservative, considering that Hong Kong’s Disneyland has consistently achieved 4 to 5 million visitors a year since opening in 2005. Genting International’s stock price last closed at 61 cents per share on Friday.
Source
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Is SGX price surge overdone?
THE stock market, they say, is driven by hope, greed and fear.
In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.
And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.
This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.
Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.
But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.
The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.
Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.
This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.
'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.
'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.
Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.
OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'
While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.
As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.
In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.
And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.
This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.
Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.
But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.
The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.
Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.
This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.
'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.
'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.
Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.
OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'
While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.
As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.
三重底的研判与投资技巧
三重底。三重底既是头肩底的变异形态，也是W形底的复合形态，三重底相对于W形底和头肩底而言比较少见，却又是比后两者更加坚实的底部形态，而且形态形成后的上攻力度也更强。其形态的成立必须等待有效向上突破颈线位时才能最终确认。因为，三重底突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者即使在形态确立后介入，仍有较大的获利空间。
三重底的研判技巧：
在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是：三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的，三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形，未来发展极有可能向三重底演化，至于最终是否能构筑成三重底，并形成一轮上升行情，还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是：
1、三重底形态的三次低点时间，通常至少要保持在10～15个交易日以上，如果时间间隔过小，往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中，底部形态的构筑基础不牢固，即使形成了三重底，由于其形态过小，后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔9天，第二和第三低点之间间隔11天，只是勉强符合标准。
2、三重底的三次上攻行情中，成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态，否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时，在期间的两次上升行情中，成交量始终不能有效放大的话，将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。
3、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中，如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量，仍然会功败垂成。所以，三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位，才能有望展开新一轮升势。
投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作，或者已经从表面上形成了三重底，就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入，这是非常危险的。因为，有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造，但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话，三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长，底部较为坚实。因此，突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成，股价成功突破颈线位之后，才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入，虽然有可能获取更多地利润，但从风险收益比率方面计算，反而得不偿失。
三重底的研判技巧：
在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是：三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的，三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形，未来发展极有可能向三重底演化，至于最终是否能构筑成三重底，并形成一轮上升行情，还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是：
1、三重底形态的三次低点时间，通常至少要保持在10～15个交易日以上，如果时间间隔过小，往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中，底部形态的构筑基础不牢固，即使形成了三重底，由于其形态过小，后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔9天，第二和第三低点之间间隔11天，只是勉强符合标准。
2、三重底的三次上攻行情中，成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态，否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时，在期间的两次上升行情中，成交量始终不能有效放大的话，将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。
3、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中，如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量，仍然会功败垂成。所以，三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位，才能有望展开新一轮升势。
投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作，或者已经从表面上形成了三重底，就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入，这是非常危险的。因为，有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造，但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话，三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长，底部较为坚实。因此，突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成，股价成功突破颈线位之后，才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入，虽然有可能获取更多地利润，但从风险收益比率方面计算，反而得不偿失。
受客户Petroprod临时清盘影响 胜科海事股价下跌
受客户Petroprod公司临时清盘(provisional liquidation)事件影响，胜科海事(Sembcorp Marine)的股价昨天一度跌至两个多星期以来的新低。
胜科海事的股价昨天一度下滑至2.02元，跌幅高达9.4％，早上10时24分时则回升到2.09元，并在闭市时回涨到2.13元，全日跌幅为0.10元(即4.5％)。
挪威石油公司Petroprod公司是在开曼群岛(Cayman Islands)注册的，这家公司日前被令临时清盘。
胜科海事独资子公司裕廊船厂(Jurong Shipyard)在2007年5月，曾获得Petroprod子公司——Petroprod D&P I Ltd一份价值4亿4200万美元(约6亿7000万新元)的合同，为对方建造一座能在恶劣环境中运作的升降式钻油台(jack-up rig)。裕廊船厂原本预计在2010年中交货。
Petroprod的另外一家子公司Petroprod 1也把一个将现有油槽船(tanker)改造成浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的项目合同，颁发给裕廊船厂。因此，两项合同的总值超过5亿美元。
胜科海事日前发表文告指出，裕廊船厂已接获Petroprod被令临时清盘的通知，裕廊船厂目前正向Petroprod的临时(公司)清算人(KPMG公司)索取更多有关资料，若有必要，集团也会提供新的消息。集团相信，这起事件不会对这两项合同造成任何实质影响。
一般来说，钻油台工程都需要客户以竣工程度来定期支付工程期款。据媒体报道，胜科海事相信已为钻油台工程收取了约一半的工程费。
据挪威报章TradeWinds报道，Petroprod的机构债券持有人向法庭申请清盘令。Petroprod为这两个项目融资所发行的债券面值总值约为3亿美元。
然而，据一名知情者透露，这些债券持有人希望这两个项目还能继续进行，因为他们相信项目的价值，但却因为某些事件而对Petroprod的管理层没有信心。
今年2月，Petroprod也曾表示因为信贷紧缩，要获得贷款和进行证券融资不容易。
由于原油价格已从去年7月的顶峰下滑了66％，环球信贷紧缩的问题也促使一些钻油台经营者取消与船厂的订单或延迟交货日期。
Source
胜科海事的股价昨天一度下滑至2.02元，跌幅高达9.4％，早上10时24分时则回升到2.09元，并在闭市时回涨到2.13元，全日跌幅为0.10元(即4.5％)。
挪威石油公司Petroprod公司是在开曼群岛(Cayman Islands)注册的，这家公司日前被令临时清盘。
胜科海事独资子公司裕廊船厂(Jurong Shipyard)在2007年5月，曾获得Petroprod子公司——Petroprod D&P I Ltd一份价值4亿4200万美元(约6亿7000万新元)的合同，为对方建造一座能在恶劣环境中运作的升降式钻油台(jack-up rig)。裕廊船厂原本预计在2010年中交货。
Petroprod的另外一家子公司Petroprod 1也把一个将现有油槽船(tanker)改造成浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的项目合同，颁发给裕廊船厂。因此，两项合同的总值超过5亿美元。
胜科海事日前发表文告指出，裕廊船厂已接获Petroprod被令临时清盘的通知，裕廊船厂目前正向Petroprod的临时(公司)清算人(KPMG公司)索取更多有关资料，若有必要，集团也会提供新的消息。集团相信，这起事件不会对这两项合同造成任何实质影响。
一般来说，钻油台工程都需要客户以竣工程度来定期支付工程期款。据媒体报道，胜科海事相信已为钻油台工程收取了约一半的工程费。
据挪威报章TradeWinds报道，Petroprod的机构债券持有人向法庭申请清盘令。Petroprod为这两个项目融资所发行的债券面值总值约为3亿美元。
然而，据一名知情者透露，这些债券持有人希望这两个项目还能继续进行，因为他们相信项目的价值，但却因为某些事件而对Petroprod的管理层没有信心。
今年2月，Petroprod也曾表示因为信贷紧缩，要获得贷款和进行证券融资不容易。
由于原油价格已从去年7月的顶峰下滑了66％，环球信贷紧缩的问题也促使一些钻油台经营者取消与船厂的订单或延迟交货日期。
Source
荣南获迪拜地铁4040万元合约
荣南控股（Yongnam Holdings）获得总值4040万元的三项迪拜地铁（Dubai Metro）合约。
其中最大的一项合约价值3080万元，要为12个地铁站提供钢铁结构的供应、制造和移交等工程。这三项合约预计会于今年年底前完工，将对集团的营收和经理产生积极的贡献。
Source
其中最大的一项合约价值3080万元，要为12个地铁站提供钢铁结构的供应、制造和移交等工程。这三项合约预计会于今年年底前完工，将对集团的营收和经理产生积极的贡献。
Source
九天化工集团（Jiutian Chemical）
九天化工集团是中国主要的二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）生产商之一。它本来属于中国河南安阳市国营企业安阳化学工业集团的一部分，后来经由管理层收购而分拆成立私人企业。
它前日发出盈警，预期集团截至3月底的09财年首季度业绩会出现净亏损，指出二甲基甲酰胺的需求因全球经济放缓而继续疲弱，以致它的厂房使用率只有55％。它料在本月27日发布季度业绩。联昌国际研究早在去年就停止对它作出分析，因此没有给予它任何评级和目标价。
九天化工集团昨日收报7分，跌半分。
（联昌国际研究，CIMB-GK Research）
Source
它前日发出盈警，预期集团截至3月底的09财年首季度业绩会出现净亏损，指出二甲基甲酰胺的需求因全球经济放缓而继续疲弱，以致它的厂房使用率只有55％。它料在本月27日发布季度业绩。联昌国际研究早在去年就停止对它作出分析，因此没有给予它任何评级和目标价。
九天化工集团昨日收报7分，跌半分。
（联昌国际研究，CIMB-GK Research）
Source
Thursday, April 16, 2009
美股收盘上涨；投资者关注经济复苏的迹象
美国股市大幅上扬，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘上涨逾100点；因为投资者关注国际纸业公司(International Paper Co., IP)、英特尔(Intel Co., INTC)的表态及联邦政府数据中体现出来的经济需求改善迹象。道琼斯指数涨109.44点，至8029.62点，涨幅1.38%；距离近期收盘高位还有不到60点。标准普尔500指数涨10.56点，至852.06点，涨幅1.25%；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.08点，至1626.8点，涨幅0.07%；不过英特尔下跌限制了该指数涨势。
在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)于美东时间下午2点公布黄皮书(Beige Book)后，美国股市进一步上涨。
虽然整体消费支出依然疲软，但部分辖区报告称，销售额小幅上升或降幅放缓。房地产市场情况类似，市况仍然疲软，但部分辖区称住房销售有所回升。
据美国全国住房建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders, 简称NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数(Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)显示，4月份单户型预售屋建筑商信心指数上升了5点，至14点，为2003年5月份以来的最大单月升幅。
这是该指数六个月以来首次升至两位数字。国际纸业公司股价涨1.58美元，至8.80美元，涨幅22%，因德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)此前援引该公司管理人士的话称，对经济敏感的市场即将复苏。英特尔股价跌39美分，至15.62美分，跌幅2.4%，该公司此前警告称，预计第二财政季度收入与第一财季持平或略低于第一财季。
不过，英特尔表示，个人电脑市场最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)经济学家David Resler表示，周二的一个积极信号是库存销售比率在下降。他表示，这是经济复苏或反弹的先期迹象。
在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)于美东时间下午2点公布黄皮书(Beige Book)后，美国股市进一步上涨。
虽然整体消费支出依然疲软，但部分辖区报告称，销售额小幅上升或降幅放缓。房地产市场情况类似，市况仍然疲软，但部分辖区称住房销售有所回升。
据美国全国住房建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders, 简称NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数(Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)显示，4月份单户型预售屋建筑商信心指数上升了5点，至14点，为2003年5月份以来的最大单月升幅。
这是该指数六个月以来首次升至两位数字。国际纸业公司股价涨1.58美元，至8.80美元，涨幅22%，因德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)此前援引该公司管理人士的话称，对经济敏感的市场即将复苏。英特尔股价跌39美分，至15.62美分，跌幅2.4%，该公司此前警告称，预计第二财政季度收入与第一财季持平或略低于第一财季。
不过，英特尔表示，个人电脑市场最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)经济学家David Resler表示，周二的一个积极信号是库存销售比率在下降。他表示，这是经济复苏或反弹的先期迹象。
市场对中国经济数据寄予厚望
中国周四最好能够传出一些好消息来。
毕竟，最近正是在稍微令人欣慰的中国经济数据的支撑下，亚洲股市才实现了大幅飙升。
正是因为中国，市场才抱着“下滑势头放缓就相当于上扬”的看法，认为市况的逐步好转总比没有任何变化强。
中国方面一直在传出信贷规模持续上升的消息，但多数分析师怀疑这种状况能否持久。与此同时，亚洲其他地区则显示出对华出口略微有所复苏的迹象。
上述情况使市场忽视了国内生产总值(GDP)、工业产值及贸易等那些显示经济依然普遍疲软的数据。新加坡海峡时报指数周二上涨1.1%，尽管此前公布的第一季度GDP数据十分糟糕，同时新加坡政府还将2009年GDP降幅预期从此前的2%-5%下调至了6%-9%。
不过投资者却选择将注意力放在新加坡3月份出口数据上。该数据显示，与韩国和台湾类似，新加坡的出口一定程度上也受到了中国需求的提振。但投资者实际上是在孤注一掷。市场起先曾将希望寄托在美国经济复苏上，现在又开始指望中国经济的恢复。
这样做的危险在于，一旦中国不再传来利好的经济数据，那么就会促使近期风险偏好高涨的汇市、股市以及金属市场等出现回调，部分市场人士认为，这种情况不可避免。
中国周四将公布包括GDP数据在内的一系列第一季度经济数据。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，中国第一季度GDP将较上年同期增长6.0%，低于去年第四季度6.8%的增幅。
对中国而言，6.0% GDP的增幅已是7年来最低水平，但考虑到世界大多数国家的状况，这仍是相当不错的增长率。市场还对中国季度性经济数据寄予厚望。（中国政府通常不公布季度性经济数据，但多数经济学家会从官方数据中推算出季度数据。）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏预计，经季节性因素调整后，中国第一季度GDP折合成年率将较上季度增长6.8%，根据估算的第四季度GDP增速为1.5%。市场普遍预计，定于周四公布的固定资产投资、工业产值及消费者价格指数(CPI)等数据将对中国经济增长前景构成支撑。
鉴于市场如此倾向于认为周四公布的中国经济数据会表现强劲，揭晓结果的责任就落在中国政府身上了，中国政府或者让市场如愿以偿或者戳破这个希望气球。
毕竟，最近正是在稍微令人欣慰的中国经济数据的支撑下，亚洲股市才实现了大幅飙升。
正是因为中国，市场才抱着“下滑势头放缓就相当于上扬”的看法，认为市况的逐步好转总比没有任何变化强。
中国方面一直在传出信贷规模持续上升的消息，但多数分析师怀疑这种状况能否持久。与此同时，亚洲其他地区则显示出对华出口略微有所复苏的迹象。
上述情况使市场忽视了国内生产总值(GDP)、工业产值及贸易等那些显示经济依然普遍疲软的数据。新加坡海峡时报指数周二上涨1.1%，尽管此前公布的第一季度GDP数据十分糟糕，同时新加坡政府还将2009年GDP降幅预期从此前的2%-5%下调至了6%-9%。
不过投资者却选择将注意力放在新加坡3月份出口数据上。该数据显示，与韩国和台湾类似，新加坡的出口一定程度上也受到了中国需求的提振。但投资者实际上是在孤注一掷。市场起先曾将希望寄托在美国经济复苏上，现在又开始指望中国经济的恢复。
这样做的危险在于，一旦中国不再传来利好的经济数据，那么就会促使近期风险偏好高涨的汇市、股市以及金属市场等出现回调，部分市场人士认为，这种情况不可避免。
中国周四将公布包括GDP数据在内的一系列第一季度经济数据。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，中国第一季度GDP将较上年同期增长6.0%，低于去年第四季度6.8%的增幅。
对中国而言，6.0% GDP的增幅已是7年来最低水平，但考虑到世界大多数国家的状况，这仍是相当不错的增长率。市场还对中国季度性经济数据寄予厚望。（中国政府通常不公布季度性经济数据，但多数经济学家会从官方数据中推算出季度数据。）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏预计，经季节性因素调整后，中国第一季度GDP折合成年率将较上季度增长6.8%，根据估算的第四季度GDP增速为1.5%。市场普遍预计，定于周四公布的固定资产投资、工业产值及消费者价格指数(CPI)等数据将对中国经济增长前景构成支撑。
鉴于市场如此倾向于认为周四公布的中国经济数据会表现强劲，揭晓结果的责任就落在中国政府身上了，中国政府或者让市场如愿以偿或者戳破这个希望气球。
亚太股市周三涨跌互见
亚太股市周三涨跌互见，一些投资者担心近期股市涨幅过大，因而获利回吐。受英特尔的悲观预期影响，科技股成为领跌板块。
东京股市下跌，因前夜美国股市遭遇获利回吐，令日本金融及科技类股承压，另外日圆反弹也打击了股市人气。日经225指数下跌99.72点，至8742.96点，跌幅1.1%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数下跌8.17点，至835.25点，跌幅1%。市场成交量温和，约为23亿股。
对中国经济反弹以及中国政府将推出更多经济刺激措施的预期推动香港股市连续第三个交易日走高，指数权重股中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd., 0941.HK, 简称：中国移动)补涨，推高大盘。恒生指数收盘上涨89.46点，至15,669.62点，涨幅0.57%，盘中交易区间15,213.39点至15,669.85点。
中国股市连续第五个交易日收高；中国明日将公布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。不过，继近期上涨后，股市在本交易日大部分时间横盘整理。上证综现甘张陶?.4%，至2536.06点。深证综合指数涨1.2%，至860.37点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走低，近期买进银行股的投资者在美国金融企业公布业绩前获利回吐。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌5.4点，至3747.5点，跌幅0.1%。
新加坡股市收盘走高，收复了最初追随美国股市前夜跌势而产生的失地，主要受到投资者对小型股的持续需求推动，此外，市场对中国政府将推出额外经济刺激方案的预期推动香港股市反弹，这也给新加坡股市带来指引。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨8.97点，至1,905.99点，涨幅0.5%。
东京股市下跌，因前夜美国股市遭遇获利回吐，令日本金融及科技类股承压，另外日圆反弹也打击了股市人气。日经225指数下跌99.72点，至8742.96点，跌幅1.1%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数下跌8.17点，至835.25点，跌幅1%。市场成交量温和，约为23亿股。
对中国经济反弹以及中国政府将推出更多经济刺激措施的预期推动香港股市连续第三个交易日走高，指数权重股中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd., 0941.HK, 简称：中国移动)补涨，推高大盘。恒生指数收盘上涨89.46点，至15,669.62点，涨幅0.57%，盘中交易区间15,213.39点至15,669.85点。
中国股市连续第五个交易日收高；中国明日将公布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。不过，继近期上涨后，股市在本交易日大部分时间横盘整理。上证综现甘张陶?.4%，至2536.06点。深证综合指数涨1.2%，至860.37点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走低，近期买进银行股的投资者在美国金融企业公布业绩前获利回吐。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌5.4点，至3747.5点，跌幅0.1%。
新加坡股市收盘走高，收复了最初追随美国股市前夜跌势而产生的失地，主要受到投资者对小型股的持续需求推动，此外，市场对中国政府将推出额外经济刺激方案的预期推动香港股市反弹，这也给新加坡股市带来指引。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨8.97点，至1,905.99点，涨幅0.5%。
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
How to avoid a short squeeze As stocks rally and feds circle, short sellers face tough calls
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Short sellers are being ambushed from all sides, from tighter regulations to double-digit stock gains. But there are ways to get out of the jungle alive.
Selling stocks short, which worked well as the market plunged to its bear-market lows, came back to bite practitioners as the broad market staged a swift, double-digit rally over the last month.
A watchful eye on contrarian indicators, heavily shorted stocks and safe-haven investment flows -- plus an ear for market sentiment -- can help investors determine when it's time to get out of, or back into, a short-selling strategy.
"You want to look for extremes," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds, which runs $5 billion in exchange-traded and mutual funds, including leveraged short funds such as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares.
That largely means watching the metrics that signal investor fears have gone too far, such as highs in the CBOE Volatility Index, called the Vix, and gold prices, as well as lows in Treasury-bond yields and investor-sentiment surveys. When investors are hunkering down in cash, Treasurys and gold, the thinking goes, stocks may have sold off too much and are ready to rally.
"A huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines and in safe havens creates a recipe for a snapback," Brigandi said.
Retail investors can engage in short sales -- placing bets that an individual stock or a broader sector will fall -- by borrowing stock through a margin account or purchasing exchange-traded funds or mutual funds that engage in short trades. E-Trade Financial Corp and Scottrade, for instance, allow investors to sell stock short with as little as $2,000 in a margin account.
Prescription for heartburn
To execute a short sale, investors borrow stock, then sell it. If the shares fall, they can buy them back at a lower price, return the securities to the lender and pocket the difference as profit.
It was an attractive strategy as U.S. stocks were moving toward 12-year lows earlier this year. But in the past month, they rebounded quickly and dramatically, with the S&P 500 jumping about 27%. Some beaten-down stocks, such as Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp, made gains of that magnitude in a single day's trading.
This climate spells heartburn for short sellers. When a lot of investors suddenly want to buy a stock, brokers can require short sellers to return those borrowed shares. To "cover" their positions, short sellers need to buy shares in the market -- perhaps at higher prices than those at which they originally sold them, triggering a loss.
What's worse, demand from a multitude of short sellers trying to cover their positions at the same time can send prices even higher -- that's known as a short squeeze.
"This is a very high-risk environment to be short," said Doug Noland, a senior portfolio manager on Federated Investors' $1.3 billion Federated Prudent Bear Fund. "Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."
The dramatic recent rallies in the broader market and in some specific sectors have battered short sellers who bet against company stocks and index-based ETFs.
Take recent action in SPDR Financial Select, an ETF that tracks financial companies -- and was the fourth-most-shorted stock on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of March. Bad news for these shorts: The ETF has rallied 72% since the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low March 6.
SPDR S&P 500, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, was the second-most-shorted stock on the NYSE. It's vaulted 25% since March 6.
Meanwhile, securities regulators are debating ways to rein in the impact of some forms of short selling.
Under pressure from lawmakers and from banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering five approaches to reinstating the uptick rule, which restricts the short selling of stocks that are in decline.
Regulators can crack down even more heavily on short selling when certain sectors are getting pummeled. Last year the SEC placed a temporary restriction on short selling in nearly 800 financial institutions' shares.
Bear tracks
In this dicey environment, retail investors have to keep a close eye on signs that a bear market is about to turn bullish.
One signpost is a jump in the Vix to levels exceeding 80%.
The index, which reflects expectations for future volatility in S&P 500 stocks, rose to about 81% on Nov. 20. Over roughly the next seven weeks, the S&P 500 gained 24%.
A steep jump in gold prices and Treasury bonds, two asset classes that are traditionally bid up when investors are feeling particularly pessimistic about stocks, can also flag a coming rebound in stocks.
Two weeks after gold prices shot past $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20, the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low of 666.
Low Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices climb, can also signal stocks are readying for a rebound -- though the reversal can take time.
Starting in mid-September, in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse and the bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors were so hungry for safe, liquid government debt that they were willing to do without any interest payments at all on the shortest-term Treasurys.
Yields on 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills, which move inversely to prices, neared 0% as investors gave up on returns and tried to protect capital.
"That's not a normal market when that starts to happen; that's extreme fear," said Direxion's Brigandi.
The S&P 500 hit new lows after 1-month T-bill yields skirted 0% in September. But by December it was rallying, a bad turn for shorts.
Sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks or sectors can spell trouble for short sellers everywhere, Prudent Bear's Noland said. "We don't like to see stocks with big short positions outperforming the market," Noland said.
Citigroup, the most shorted stock on the NYSE, has tripled to just over $3 a share since March 6.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares jumped 23% after the retailer posted a smaller-than-expected profit decline. Investors had sold about 12% of its shares short, a relatively high proportion.
And in October, the German automobile manufacturer Volkswagen AG briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalization after hedge funds shorting the stock -- caught by surprise when Porsche Automobil Holding revealed a larger stake in the company -- made a forced grab for shares to cover their short positions.
Intense bidding for the few shares owned by the public quadrupled the value of VW shares in just two days.
The New York Stocks Exchange maintains a list of the most shorted stocks on its Web site.
In any market, professional short sellers say it's easy to get burned by focusing on a company's fundamentals and ignoring sentiment among investors.
That was a lesson many short sellers learned the hard way in the late 1990s, as stocks in start-up technology companies skyrocketed along with a general equity-market euphoria, even if the companies had booked no profits and faced questionable prospects. Many later went bust, but only after handing heavy losses to short sellers along the way.
"All companies, even companies that are total frauds, are susceptible to emotional responses to overall market action," said Manuel Asensio, managing member of Mill Rock Investment Advisors, a hedge-fund manager that engages in short selling and other strategies.
Source
Selling stocks short, which worked well as the market plunged to its bear-market lows, came back to bite practitioners as the broad market staged a swift, double-digit rally over the last month.
A watchful eye on contrarian indicators, heavily shorted stocks and safe-haven investment flows -- plus an ear for market sentiment -- can help investors determine when it's time to get out of, or back into, a short-selling strategy.
"You want to look for extremes," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds, which runs $5 billion in exchange-traded and mutual funds, including leveraged short funds such as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares.
That largely means watching the metrics that signal investor fears have gone too far, such as highs in the CBOE Volatility Index, called the Vix, and gold prices, as well as lows in Treasury-bond yields and investor-sentiment surveys. When investors are hunkering down in cash, Treasurys and gold, the thinking goes, stocks may have sold off too much and are ready to rally.
"A huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines and in safe havens creates a recipe for a snapback," Brigandi said.
Retail investors can engage in short sales -- placing bets that an individual stock or a broader sector will fall -- by borrowing stock through a margin account or purchasing exchange-traded funds or mutual funds that engage in short trades. E-Trade Financial Corp and Scottrade, for instance, allow investors to sell stock short with as little as $2,000 in a margin account.
Prescription for heartburn
To execute a short sale, investors borrow stock, then sell it. If the shares fall, they can buy them back at a lower price, return the securities to the lender and pocket the difference as profit.
It was an attractive strategy as U.S. stocks were moving toward 12-year lows earlier this year. But in the past month, they rebounded quickly and dramatically, with the S&P 500 jumping about 27%. Some beaten-down stocks, such as Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp, made gains of that magnitude in a single day's trading.
This climate spells heartburn for short sellers. When a lot of investors suddenly want to buy a stock, brokers can require short sellers to return those borrowed shares. To "cover" their positions, short sellers need to buy shares in the market -- perhaps at higher prices than those at which they originally sold them, triggering a loss.
What's worse, demand from a multitude of short sellers trying to cover their positions at the same time can send prices even higher -- that's known as a short squeeze.
"This is a very high-risk environment to be short," said Doug Noland, a senior portfolio manager on Federated Investors' $1.3 billion Federated Prudent Bear Fund. "Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."
The dramatic recent rallies in the broader market and in some specific sectors have battered short sellers who bet against company stocks and index-based ETFs.
Take recent action in SPDR Financial Select, an ETF that tracks financial companies -- and was the fourth-most-shorted stock on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of March. Bad news for these shorts: The ETF has rallied 72% since the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low March 6.
SPDR S&P 500, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, was the second-most-shorted stock on the NYSE. It's vaulted 25% since March 6.
Meanwhile, securities regulators are debating ways to rein in the impact of some forms of short selling.
Under pressure from lawmakers and from banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering five approaches to reinstating the uptick rule, which restricts the short selling of stocks that are in decline.
Regulators can crack down even more heavily on short selling when certain sectors are getting pummeled. Last year the SEC placed a temporary restriction on short selling in nearly 800 financial institutions' shares.
Bear tracks
In this dicey environment, retail investors have to keep a close eye on signs that a bear market is about to turn bullish.
One signpost is a jump in the Vix to levels exceeding 80%.
The index, which reflects expectations for future volatility in S&P 500 stocks, rose to about 81% on Nov. 20. Over roughly the next seven weeks, the S&P 500 gained 24%.
A steep jump in gold prices and Treasury bonds, two asset classes that are traditionally bid up when investors are feeling particularly pessimistic about stocks, can also flag a coming rebound in stocks.
Two weeks after gold prices shot past $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20, the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low of 666.
Low Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices climb, can also signal stocks are readying for a rebound -- though the reversal can take time.
Starting in mid-September, in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse and the bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors were so hungry for safe, liquid government debt that they were willing to do without any interest payments at all on the shortest-term Treasurys.
Yields on 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills, which move inversely to prices, neared 0% as investors gave up on returns and tried to protect capital.
"That's not a normal market when that starts to happen; that's extreme fear," said Direxion's Brigandi.
The S&P 500 hit new lows after 1-month T-bill yields skirted 0% in September. But by December it was rallying, a bad turn for shorts.
Sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks or sectors can spell trouble for short sellers everywhere, Prudent Bear's Noland said. "We don't like to see stocks with big short positions outperforming the market," Noland said.
Citigroup, the most shorted stock on the NYSE, has tripled to just over $3 a share since March 6.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares jumped 23% after the retailer posted a smaller-than-expected profit decline. Investors had sold about 12% of its shares short, a relatively high proportion.
And in October, the German automobile manufacturer Volkswagen AG briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalization after hedge funds shorting the stock -- caught by surprise when Porsche Automobil Holding revealed a larger stake in the company -- made a forced grab for shares to cover their short positions.
Intense bidding for the few shares owned by the public quadrupled the value of VW shares in just two days.
The New York Stocks Exchange maintains a list of the most shorted stocks on its Web site.
In any market, professional short sellers say it's easy to get burned by focusing on a company's fundamentals and ignoring sentiment among investors.
That was a lesson many short sellers learned the hard way in the late 1990s, as stocks in start-up technology companies skyrocketed along with a general equity-market euphoria, even if the companies had booked no profits and faced questionable prospects. Many later went bust, but only after handing heavy losses to short sellers along the way.
"All companies, even companies that are total frauds, are susceptible to emotional responses to overall market action," said Manuel Asensio, managing member of Mill Rock Investment Advisors, a hedge-fund manager that engages in short selling and other strategies.
Source
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The recent winning streak for two beaten-down casino stocks was a classic case of what some traders suspect happened on a grander scale during the 28% rally for the Standard & Poor's 500: a short squeeze.
Shares of Strip giants MGM Mirage and Las Vegas Sands, owner of the Venetian casino, are both more than 90% from their peaks in 2008. During recent boom times, both loaded up with debt to build glistening developments that helped Vegas transform from seedy "Sin City" to a desert Monte Carlo. Now, Vegas's premium-price reputation makes it anathema to recession-struck tourists, and the casinos' debt loads are threatening to bust the companies.
This week, money manager Colony Capital LLC has broken off talks about an investment with MGM Mirage. The casino operator must come up with alternative financing for its $13.5 billion in debt, and to fund payments on its City Center project, an $8.6 billion development on the Las Vegas Strip.
Gambling, like liquor and cigarettes, was once thought to grow in popularity when times got tough. But gambling is no longer the only game in town. Data from the Nevada Gaming Commission shows that non-gaming revenue - think breakfast buffets and top-dollar suites - exceeded gaming revenue on the Strip in 2007.
Betting on red for Vegas is almost as dangerous as betting it will be in the black, however. Indeed, action in Sands and MGM Mirage has come to resemble a high-stakes game of "All-In" poker. Las Vegas Sands has more than tripled in value (to $4.44) and MGM more than doubled (to $5.30) from their March lows, when investors had effectively priced in a bust. Some short-sellers likely lost their shirts during those rallies.
Roughly 23% of Las Vegas Sands' float and 30% of MGM's were recently on loan to short sellers who borrowed it in the hopes of a fall, according to shortsqueeze.com. When an event - such as MGM's tentative deal with Colony Capital on April 1, when it closed at $2.63 - causes a stock with a large portion on loan to tick up, it can cause a stampede of buyers. That's because short-sellers lose money every time the stock ticks a little higher. Every tick prompts another short-seller to cut their loss by buying the stock. And every purchase of the stock causes another tick higher.
Outstanding short positions in New York Stock Exchange issues rose by 11% in the first half of March, suggesting that short-sellers buying back stock played some role in the recent rally beyond the action in the casinos. That's one reason some investors expect another dip for the market once the short covering is done.
One reason people may not be flocking to Vegas: they can have the same thrills and spills just watching their stock investments.
Source
Shares of Strip giants MGM Mirage and Las Vegas Sands, owner of the Venetian casino, are both more than 90% from their peaks in 2008. During recent boom times, both loaded up with debt to build glistening developments that helped Vegas transform from seedy "Sin City" to a desert Monte Carlo. Now, Vegas's premium-price reputation makes it anathema to recession-struck tourists, and the casinos' debt loads are threatening to bust the companies.
This week, money manager Colony Capital LLC has broken off talks about an investment with MGM Mirage. The casino operator must come up with alternative financing for its $13.5 billion in debt, and to fund payments on its City Center project, an $8.6 billion development on the Las Vegas Strip.
Gambling, like liquor and cigarettes, was once thought to grow in popularity when times got tough. But gambling is no longer the only game in town. Data from the Nevada Gaming Commission shows that non-gaming revenue - think breakfast buffets and top-dollar suites - exceeded gaming revenue on the Strip in 2007.
Betting on red for Vegas is almost as dangerous as betting it will be in the black, however. Indeed, action in Sands and MGM Mirage has come to resemble a high-stakes game of "All-In" poker. Las Vegas Sands has more than tripled in value (to $4.44) and MGM more than doubled (to $5.30) from their March lows, when investors had effectively priced in a bust. Some short-sellers likely lost their shirts during those rallies.
Roughly 23% of Las Vegas Sands' float and 30% of MGM's were recently on loan to short sellers who borrowed it in the hopes of a fall, according to shortsqueeze.com. When an event - such as MGM's tentative deal with Colony Capital on April 1, when it closed at $2.63 - causes a stock with a large portion on loan to tick up, it can cause a stampede of buyers. That's because short-sellers lose money every time the stock ticks a little higher. Every tick prompts another short-seller to cut their loss by buying the stock. And every purchase of the stock causes another tick higher.
Outstanding short positions in New York Stock Exchange issues rose by 11% in the first half of March, suggesting that short-sellers buying back stock played some role in the recent rally beyond the action in the casinos. That's one reason some investors expect another dip for the market once the short covering is done.
One reason people may not be flocking to Vegas: they can have the same thrills and spills just watching their stock investments.
Source
Friday, April 10, 2009
MGM Mirage, Colony Capital Loan Discussions Said to Be On Hold
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- MGM Mirage’s talks to get a $750 million secured loan from Colony Capital LLC have been put on hold as the casino company focuses on negotiations with banks, two people with knowledge of the discussions said.
Talks with Colony, the Los Angeles-based private equity firm, may restart and a loan is still possible, said the people, who declined to be named because negotiations are private. Colony and Australia’s Crown Ltd. were considering a debt investment in Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage, people familiar with the talks said this week.
MGM Mirage, controlled by 91-year-old Kirk Kerkorian, has until May 15 to offer a plan to restructure debt totaling more than $12 billion. The company also has been funding construction of the multibillion-dollar CityCenter development on the Las Vegas Strip alone after partner Dubai World sued and asked to be relieved of financing obligations.
The next CityCenter payment is due on April 13. Bank waivers allowing MGM Mirage to cover state-owned Dubai World’s half also expire on that day.
Spokespeople for MGM Mirage and Colony Capital declined to comment to Bloomberg News.
Geoff Kleeman, a spokesman for Melbourne-based Crown, didn’t return voice-mail messages left by Bloomberg on his office and cell phone outside of business hours.
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Colony had ended talks with MGM Mirage. Alan Feldman, a spokesman for MGM Mirage, said the company continues to hold talks with investors and declined to identify them, the newspaper said.
MGM rose 55 cents, or 12 percent, to $5.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than doubled this month.
Source
Talks with Colony, the Los Angeles-based private equity firm, may restart and a loan is still possible, said the people, who declined to be named because negotiations are private. Colony and Australia’s Crown Ltd. were considering a debt investment in Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage, people familiar with the talks said this week.
MGM Mirage, controlled by 91-year-old Kirk Kerkorian, has until May 15 to offer a plan to restructure debt totaling more than $12 billion. The company also has been funding construction of the multibillion-dollar CityCenter development on the Las Vegas Strip alone after partner Dubai World sued and asked to be relieved of financing obligations.
The next CityCenter payment is due on April 13. Bank waivers allowing MGM Mirage to cover state-owned Dubai World’s half also expire on that day.
Spokespeople for MGM Mirage and Colony Capital declined to comment to Bloomberg News.
Geoff Kleeman, a spokesman for Melbourne-based Crown, didn’t return voice-mail messages left by Bloomberg on his office and cell phone outside of business hours.
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Colony had ended talks with MGM Mirage. Alan Feldman, a spokesman for MGM Mirage, said the company continues to hold talks with investors and declined to identify them, the newspaper said.
MGM rose 55 cents, or 12 percent, to $5.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than doubled this month.
Source
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