九天化工集团 (Jiutian Chemical) 一年目标价：72分
2007-10-31
尽管它因二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）价格走下坡以及甲醇（Methanol）成本上升而可能面临短暂调整，星展集团研究对它下财年后的业务执行以及增长展望继续保持信心。
它的二甲基甲酰胺新生产设施下个月起将开始投产作出贡献，它的甲醇新厂兴建计划正如期展开，预料在明年6月完工。星展集团相信它在明年不久将宣布下个增长推动因素，这将有助于减缓因甲醇成本上升以及二甲基甲酰胺价格下滑所带来的短期下跌压力。
它的同行华鲁恒升（Hualu Hengsheng）现价相等于23.6倍的未来本益比，比它的现价估值高出许多。除了展望不错外，星展集团预期收购行动料将促进它在2008年以后的盈利表现，因此把目标价定为72分，并维持对它“买入”评级。
九天化工集团昨日收报61分，跌半分。
（星展集团研究）
Showing posts with label House Call. Show all posts
Showing posts with label House Call. Show all posts
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Jiutian Chemical Group
What’s on the table (Dated 31 Oct 2007)
Jiutian Chemical Group (S$0.61) - Re-rating catalysts ahead
We visited Jiutian’s new DMF plant in China recently and witnessed the plant’s fast ramp-up. We also saw the construction of the new methanol plant, on track for trial production by mid-2008. In view of higher methanol prices recently, we expect margins to decline over the next three quarters before the methanol plant comes on stream. We have reduced our FY07-08 EPS forecasts by 12-29% to factor in lower ASP assumptions, a slower ramp for the methanol plant and higher methanol prices. However, our DCF-derived target price has been raised from S$0.63 to S$0.75 (WACC 14%, LTG 1.5%) as we roll forward our valuation basis to CY08. Maintain Outperform for its strong earnings growth, undemanding valuations vs. industry peers and M&A prospects.
http://sgmarkettalk.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/daybreak-311007.pdf
Jiutian Chemical Group (S$0.61) - Re-rating catalysts ahead
We visited Jiutian’s new DMF plant in China recently and witnessed the plant’s fast ramp-up. We also saw the construction of the new methanol plant, on track for trial production by mid-2008. In view of higher methanol prices recently, we expect margins to decline over the next three quarters before the methanol plant comes on stream. We have reduced our FY07-08 EPS forecasts by 12-29% to factor in lower ASP assumptions, a slower ramp for the methanol plant and higher methanol prices. However, our DCF-derived target price has been raised from S$0.63 to S$0.75 (WACC 14%, LTG 1.5%) as we roll forward our valuation basis to CY08. Maintain Outperform for its strong earnings growth, undemanding valuations vs. industry peers and M&A prospects.
http://sgmarkettalk.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/daybreak-311007.pdf
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
九天化工 (Jiutian Chemcial Group)
九天化工（Jiutian Chemcial Group)
九天化工拥有全部优点: 大规模，成本低,确保主要原材料,政府的支持及效率高的物流网络。
中国产能最大的二甲基甲酰胺厂商之一. 07下半年，九天把二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）产能扩展5倍，这将使公司提升为中国四大制造商。除了二甲基甲酰胺以外,九天也生产甲醇(methanol)及甲胺(methylamine)供自用, 同时也销售可消耗的液态二氧化碳及氧气. 成本最低生产商. 公司厂房座落于中国的煤炭地带工厂，可获得中国国营企业安化（Anhua ，暂译）的长期原材料供应。根据长达 20年的供应协议, 锁定三年采购价, 只在每隔三年结束时才重新调整. 这使到九天化工的完成品价格维持一定的优势.
综合上游工业以确保甲醇稳定及成本效益的供应. 九天也与安化组成合资,共同建造一年产25万吨的甲醇工厂, 这工厂长期至少每年能为九天提供16万吨的甲醇. 我们看好这发展, 因为2009年,九天将有多余的甲醇供外销, 甲醇可作为替代燃料, 而公司也可从中受益.
潜在以并合加速成长的能力. 公司不排除以收购具综效利益的企业以加速成长. 九天化工的并合条件为: 1) 有助扩大或辅助所供应产品,具综效利益的业务 ; 2)类似公司,以碳为本的业务; 及 3) 地点靠近产碳带以现有最低成本优势的业务.
07-09财年每股盈利复合年均成长将因新添产能而飙升60%. 到了2008年底,二甲基甲酰胺及甲醇的产能应该可个别达到现有的五倍以上.多余的甲醇产能或甲醇成功的成为燃油的替代品,可为提供额外的增长动力。我们认为良好的业绩，成功的扩展二甲基甲酰胺及甲醇业务，加上并购商机，是刺激股价的潜在力量。
九天化工拥有全部优点: 大规模，成本低,确保主要原材料,政府的支持及效率高的物流网络。
中国产能最大的二甲基甲酰胺厂商之一. 07下半年，九天把二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）产能扩展5倍，这将使公司提升为中国四大制造商。除了二甲基甲酰胺以外,九天也生产甲醇(methanol)及甲胺(methylamine)供自用, 同时也销售可消耗的液态二氧化碳及氧气. 成本最低生产商. 公司厂房座落于中国的煤炭地带工厂，可获得中国国营企业安化（Anhua ，暂译）的长期原材料供应。根据长达 20年的供应协议, 锁定三年采购价, 只在每隔三年结束时才重新调整. 这使到九天化工的完成品价格维持一定的优势.
综合上游工业以确保甲醇稳定及成本效益的供应. 九天也与安化组成合资,共同建造一年产25万吨的甲醇工厂, 这工厂长期至少每年能为九天提供16万吨的甲醇. 我们看好这发展, 因为2009年,九天将有多余的甲醇供外销, 甲醇可作为替代燃料, 而公司也可从中受益.
潜在以并合加速成长的能力. 公司不排除以收购具综效利益的企业以加速成长. 九天化工的并合条件为: 1) 有助扩大或辅助所供应产品,具综效利益的业务 ; 2)类似公司,以碳为本的业务; 及 3) 地点靠近产碳带以现有最低成本优势的业务.
07-09财年每股盈利复合年均成长将因新添产能而飙升60%. 到了2008年底,二甲基甲酰胺及甲醇的产能应该可个别达到现有的五倍以上.多余的甲醇产能或甲醇成功的成为燃油的替代品,可为提供额外的增长动力。我们认为良好的业绩，成功的扩展二甲基甲酰胺及甲醇业务，加上并购商机，是刺激股价的潜在力量。
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
What's HOT & What's NOT
Broadway Industrial Group
No mean player
1 November 2007
by Jonathan Ng & Jacky Lee
OUTPERFORM
Uninterrupted earnings growth since 2002.
Broadway’s profits grew by 120% CAGR between 2002 and 2006, lifted by continuous growth in its HDD component business and the realignment of its packaging business. We expect net profit and EPS to grow by a healthy 32% and 18% CAGR respectively between FY06 and FY09, underpinned by both its component and packaging businesses.
To ride healthy HDD demand.
Broadway, through its wholly-owned Compart Asia, is one of the world’s top three actuator-arm suppliers and is expected to gain from healthy HDD shipments, projected to grow by 14% CAGR between 2006 and 2009. Its two major HDD customers, Seagate and Hitachi, are also growing ahead of the industry. A further boost in the HDD component business could come from greater allocations from Hitachi as Compart has been qualified to serve Hitachi’s whole spectrum of products since early 2007.
Expanding to serve non-HDD industries.
Compart has also diversified into non- HDD industries for its component business, targeting the semiconductor and automotive sectors. Although the outlook for semiconductor equipment remains weak, projected to be flat yoy in 2007 and up 8% yoy in 2008, Compart’s business should be less affected as it is involved in consumables and gaining allocation.
Packaging operations located in main manufacturing hub for electronics products.
Following the divestment of its South-East Asian packaging business in 2002, all its manufacturing facilities for packaging are now located in China, which is the main hub for electronics products. We expect this packaging business to grow in tandem with the increased manufacturing of electronics products on the mainland.
Initiate with Outperform and target price of S$1.93.
Broadway trades at only 5x CY08 earnings (on an enlarged number of shares post-acquisition of the remaining 44.15% stake in Compart), which is way below the industry average of over 9x. Our target price of S$1.93 pegs Broadway at 10x CY08 earnings, which is the average P/E we set for HDD component suppliers under our coverage. We believe this is not excessive, supported by valuations used by private equities and companies in recent M&A deals in the HDD component space (Amtek: 10.0x CY08 our projected earnings; MMI: 10.2x; Seksun: 10.7x; Brilliant: 22.5x consensus CY08 forecast). We see potential catalysts from healthy sets of results and a successful diversification into non-HDD businesses.
No mean player
1 November 2007
by Jonathan Ng & Jacky Lee
OUTPERFORM
Uninterrupted earnings growth since 2002.
Broadway’s profits grew by 120% CAGR between 2002 and 2006, lifted by continuous growth in its HDD component business and the realignment of its packaging business. We expect net profit and EPS to grow by a healthy 32% and 18% CAGR respectively between FY06 and FY09, underpinned by both its component and packaging businesses.
To ride healthy HDD demand.
Broadway, through its wholly-owned Compart Asia, is one of the world’s top three actuator-arm suppliers and is expected to gain from healthy HDD shipments, projected to grow by 14% CAGR between 2006 and 2009. Its two major HDD customers, Seagate and Hitachi, are also growing ahead of the industry. A further boost in the HDD component business could come from greater allocations from Hitachi as Compart has been qualified to serve Hitachi’s whole spectrum of products since early 2007.
Expanding to serve non-HDD industries.
Compart has also diversified into non- HDD industries for its component business, targeting the semiconductor and automotive sectors. Although the outlook for semiconductor equipment remains weak, projected to be flat yoy in 2007 and up 8% yoy in 2008, Compart’s business should be less affected as it is involved in consumables and gaining allocation.
Packaging operations located in main manufacturing hub for electronics products.
Following the divestment of its South-East Asian packaging business in 2002, all its manufacturing facilities for packaging are now located in China, which is the main hub for electronics products. We expect this packaging business to grow in tandem with the increased manufacturing of electronics products on the mainland.
Initiate with Outperform and target price of S$1.93.
Broadway trades at only 5x CY08 earnings (on an enlarged number of shares post-acquisition of the remaining 44.15% stake in Compart), which is way below the industry average of over 9x. Our target price of S$1.93 pegs Broadway at 10x CY08 earnings, which is the average P/E we set for HDD component suppliers under our coverage. We believe this is not excessive, supported by valuations used by private equities and companies in recent M&A deals in the HDD component space (Amtek: 10.0x CY08 our projected earnings; MMI: 10.2x; Seksun: 10.7x; Brilliant: 22.5x consensus CY08 forecast). We see potential catalysts from healthy sets of results and a successful diversification into non-HDD businesses.
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