SINGAPORE - Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS) is to launch a search for a creative agency after parting ways with TBWA yesterday.
"Resorts World at Sentosa is on track for its opening early next year, and will be exploring options for its next creative agency,” said Robin Goh, assistant vice president, communications, Resorts World at Sentosa.
Other sources have suggested that “several” agencies have already held talks with the client, while one argued that a pitch consultant could be brought in to invite agencies to pitch in time.
TBWA Singapore resigned the RWS creative business after two years, citing "creative and strategic differences".
Angela Lam, head of marketing at Resorts World at Sentosa, said: “Both companies have decided that this would be the best move at this point in time.”
Source
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Traders bet on Wall Street rising
Hang Seng's surge, 60-point bounce in Dow Jones Industrial Average June futures push STI up 41 points
IF INDICES in this part of the world should rise sharply, it's a fair bet that it was because traders are betting heavily on Wall Street rising just as sharply later the same day. Such was the case yesterday when fears of Mexican swine flu, which had dragged the Straits Times Index down some 45 points on Monday and Tuesday, were suddenly banished, thanks to a 2.7 per cent rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and a 60-point bounce in the June futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The outcome was a 41.16-point rise in the STI to 1,849.57, with some amount of short-covering no doubt playing a part.
The bulk of brokers' reports dealt with the possible consequences on markets if the swine flu threat was to rise beyond present, relatively benign levels.
In a Hong Kong Economics report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley said that it thinks the negative impact on the economy will be smaller than that experienced during the 2003 Sars outbreak. 'The biggest blow during Sars was the collapse of in-bound tourism, which will unlikely be the case this time round as Hong Kong/China is not the source of the outbreak,' said MS. It also said that Hong Kong today is different from 2003 because the relevant authorities are better prepared for epidemic disease outbreaks.
Airline stocks have understandably come under pressure this week, although Singapore Airlines yesterday rebounded 16 cents to $10.30 with 2.7 million traded.
In assessing the impact of the swine flu on SIA, DBS Vickers said in a Tuesday note that it does not expect a major impact on the airline's business yet, because SIA does not fly to Mexico and flies to only a few US cities.
'Of greater importance is a recovery in demand and thus load factors, which can help the stock re-rate . . . Maintain 'hold' with $11.30 target price. The earnings outlook for the next two quarters remains weak and we would advise buying only if 1) load factors start to improve or 2) the shares drop below $9 per share,' said DBSV.
Elsewhere, Chartered Semiconductor was the day's most active stock, rising 1.5 cents to 16.5 cents on volume of 84.4 million. Goldman Sachs yesterday released a 'sell' on the counter, saying that because the stock has doubled in the past month and is now trading at 0.6 times 2009 estimated book, it is overvalued. Among other reasons, GS also based its call on Chartered not having had positive annual cash flow since inception and the likelihood that it will need further financing in 2009-10 to supplement a recently-completed rights issue.
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse (CS) joined the ranks of investment houses such as Nomura, UBS Investment Research and Citi Investment Research in recommending an 'overweight' on the local market.
In a April 28 Strategy report, CS said it believes that the local market may have bottomed and could gain 20-48 per cent from current levels. It said it is 'overweighting' banks and financials while 'underweighting' telecoms and property.
In a April 24 Global Economics Weekly report, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said that the current bounce on Wall St is at best, 'the famed reflexive rebound that occurs between down-legs of a secular bear market'.
It added that economic support for the rally has been dubious so far and pointed out that although bull markets may start out being driven by technicals like sentiment and market positioning, they have to be driven by economic fundamentals to be sustained.
Shares close up 2.28%
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 2.28 per cent higher on Wednesday, boosted by strong performances in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, dealers said.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index closed 41.16 points higher at 1,849.57 on volume of 1.52 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$777 million).
Gainers led losers 373 to 116, with 761 issues unchanged.
'We are basically following the region,' said a trader at bank-backed brokerage.
'The initial reaction by the market to the swine flu outbreak was probably overdone.'
Hong Kong share prices closed 2.76 per cent higher on Wednesday, while China shares climbed 2.78 per cent.
Banking shares closed higher. DBS advanced 11 cents to $9.10, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp climbed 12 cents to $5.48 and United Overseas Bank edged up six cents to $11.00.
Among property shares, CapitaLand rose 13 cents to $2.56, City Developments gained 14 cents to $5.82 while Keppel Land was unchanged at $1.67.
Singapore Airlines gained 16 cents to $10.30 and Singapore Telecommunications rose eight cents to $2.54.
Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries was up nine cents to $2.65 and motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage climbed 34 cents to $13.26.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index closed 41.16 points higher at 1,849.57 on volume of 1.52 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$777 million).
Gainers led losers 373 to 116, with 761 issues unchanged.
'We are basically following the region,' said a trader at bank-backed brokerage.
'The initial reaction by the market to the swine flu outbreak was probably overdone.'
Hong Kong share prices closed 2.76 per cent higher on Wednesday, while China shares climbed 2.78 per cent.
Banking shares closed higher. DBS advanced 11 cents to $9.10, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp climbed 12 cents to $5.48 and United Overseas Bank edged up six cents to $11.00.
Among property shares, CapitaLand rose 13 cents to $2.56, City Developments gained 14 cents to $5.82 while Keppel Land was unchanged at $1.67.
Singapore Airlines gained 16 cents to $10.30 and Singapore Telecommunications rose eight cents to $2.54.
Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries was up nine cents to $2.65 and motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage climbed 34 cents to $13.26.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
猪流感可能打击马国赌场
（吉隆坡讯）猪流感来袭，旅游业首当其冲，分析员认为尽管整体展望负面，但实际影响仍视疫情扩散程度和长度，2009至2011财政年盈利预测和评级暂时保持不变。
联昌研究表示，致命病毒将对旅游和相关服务行业带来沉重打击，而赌场次领域更直接受害，主要是民众将削减旅游次数，以及减少曝露于公开场合等方式降低感染机率。
“对名胜世界(RESORTS)而言，这意味着云顶度假村和赌场旅客人数减少，但鉴于国内旅客为其主要客源，相信政府加强旅客检疫动作将不会对业务造成重大威胁，而云顶(GENTING)则因持有云顶国际和名胜世界股权而间接受创。”
截至2008财政年，云顶72％旅客为当天往返的短途旅客，其余28％为酒店房客，其中54％为当地人，22％新加坡旅客以及中国／香港22％和其他15％。
另外，阿马研究则认为，尽管整体展望负面，但对旅游和相关服务领域实际影响仍胥视疫情扩散程度和周期。
根据历史趋势，疫情爆发对博彩业者影响程度参差，但毫无疑问将对博彩相关类股信心带来负面冲击，其中名胜世界和云顶股价在2003年沙斯爆发初期，分别从高位下滑29％和23％，但随疫情在下半年趋缓，双方股价则从低位飙升60％和67％。
Source
联昌研究表示，致命病毒将对旅游和相关服务行业带来沉重打击，而赌场次领域更直接受害，主要是民众将削减旅游次数，以及减少曝露于公开场合等方式降低感染机率。
“对名胜世界(RESORTS)而言，这意味着云顶度假村和赌场旅客人数减少，但鉴于国内旅客为其主要客源，相信政府加强旅客检疫动作将不会对业务造成重大威胁，而云顶(GENTING)则因持有云顶国际和名胜世界股权而间接受创。”
截至2008财政年，云顶72％旅客为当天往返的短途旅客，其余28％为酒店房客，其中54％为当地人，22％新加坡旅客以及中国／香港22％和其他15％。
另外，阿马研究则认为，尽管整体展望负面，但对旅游和相关服务领域实际影响仍胥视疫情扩散程度和周期。
根据历史趋势，疫情爆发对博彩业者影响程度参差，但毫无疑问将对博彩相关类股信心带来负面冲击，其中名胜世界和云顶股价在2003年沙斯爆发初期，分别从高位下滑29％和23％，但随疫情在下半年趋缓，双方股价则从低位飙升60％和67％。
Source
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
名胜世界或购海外博彩资产 手持庞大现金·财务稳固
手持45亿令吉净现金在手的名胜世界（Resorts，4715，主板贸服股），企在非常舒适的财务状况，使之在收购海外博彩资产上拥有更好的地位。
受到美国疲弱经济所影响，美国及澳门的多家博彩公司也处在危险财务的边缘，加上澳门的签证限制，估计在未来的6至12个月内，全球的博彩领域会掀起并购浪潮。
有鉴于目前一些博彩资产价值低于一般水平，预见名胜世界将趁机利用手上45亿令吉的充裕现金，来加强其稳健的博彩资产。
在美国及亚洲（尤其是澳门），一些博彩公司在过去18个月来是在低估值下交易；而在欧洲，反而是线上或网络博彩已开出另一条生路，法国及德国有可能会合法化网络博彩活动。在这些博彩公司面对财务危机之际，进而为名胜世界提供了并购的机会，包括了波伊德博彩（Boyd aming）、驿站集团（Station Casino），以及热带娱乐公司（Tropicana Entertainment）。
承接债务数量是关键
另外较引人瞩目的是澳门的银河娱乐（Galaxy Entertainment）以及新濠博亚博彩（Melco Crown）这两个主要特许经营公司，名胜世界仅需80%以下的现有现金，就能够收购其中一家。
然而，若名胜世界决定要采取全面收购的方式，该公司将必须自身承接剩余债务的能力，而关键也在于名胜世界愿意承接被收购者的多少债务。
另一方面，虽然预见名胜世界于新加坡的度假村在2010年投入运作后，将面临另一度假村强劲的挑战而仅取得100万的新加坡顾客，但相信在具吸引力的房间收费率及演唱会的带动下，2011年的顾客数量将有所恢复。有鉴于看好名胜世界收益将维持稳健，分析员也给予名胜世界“买入”评级，并将目标价格上调至3.10令吉。
Source
受到美国疲弱经济所影响，美国及澳门的多家博彩公司也处在危险财务的边缘，加上澳门的签证限制，估计在未来的6至12个月内，全球的博彩领域会掀起并购浪潮。
有鉴于目前一些博彩资产价值低于一般水平，预见名胜世界将趁机利用手上45亿令吉的充裕现金，来加强其稳健的博彩资产。
在美国及亚洲（尤其是澳门），一些博彩公司在过去18个月来是在低估值下交易；而在欧洲，反而是线上或网络博彩已开出另一条生路，法国及德国有可能会合法化网络博彩活动。在这些博彩公司面对财务危机之际，进而为名胜世界提供了并购的机会，包括了波伊德博彩（Boyd aming）、驿站集团（Station Casino），以及热带娱乐公司（Tropicana Entertainment）。
承接债务数量是关键
另外较引人瞩目的是澳门的银河娱乐（Galaxy Entertainment）以及新濠博亚博彩（Melco Crown）这两个主要特许经营公司，名胜世界仅需80%以下的现有现金，就能够收购其中一家。
然而，若名胜世界决定要采取全面收购的方式，该公司将必须自身承接剩余债务的能力，而关键也在于名胜世界愿意承接被收购者的多少债务。
另一方面，虽然预见名胜世界于新加坡的度假村在2010年投入运作后，将面临另一度假村强劲的挑战而仅取得100万的新加坡顾客，但相信在具吸引力的房间收费率及演唱会的带动下，2011年的顾客数量将有所恢复。有鉴于看好名胜世界收益将维持稳健，分析员也给予名胜世界“买入”评级，并将目标价格上调至3.10令吉。
Source
Monday, April 27, 2009
Shares close 1.8% lower
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares fell 1.85 per cent on Monday on fears over the economic impact of a deadly swine flu outbreak, analysts said.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 34.24 points down at 1,818.61, led by Singapore Airlines on concerns that air travel will take a further hit from the new health threat.
Volume was 1.77 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$774 million). Losers outnumbered gainers 427 to 125, with 700 issues unchanged.
The STI's decline was in line with other regional bourses, as fears of a worldwide swine flu outbreak dragged markets down.
'We expect uncertainty to hit the markets this week on growing concerns of the swine flu spreading and that a possible cure for this is not yet certain,' said NetResearch Asia.
'Much like SARS did in 2003, this would deal another blow to the travel and leisure industry.' Singapore Airlines dived 48 cents to $10.12 and Singapore Telecommunications eased two cents to $2.47.
Banking shares closed lower. DBS and United Overseas Bank eased six cents apiece to $8.98 and $11.12 respectively, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp shed 12 cents to $5.31.
Among property shares, CapitaLand fell 12 cents to $2.47, City Developments retreated 16 cents to $5.67 and Keppel Land slid five cents to $1.71.
Motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage fell 40 cents to $12.66 while agricultural products supplier Olam International rose five cents to $1.68.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 34.24 points down at 1,818.61, led by Singapore Airlines on concerns that air travel will take a further hit from the new health threat.
Volume was 1.77 billion shares worth $1.16 billion (US$774 million). Losers outnumbered gainers 427 to 125, with 700 issues unchanged.
The STI's decline was in line with other regional bourses, as fears of a worldwide swine flu outbreak dragged markets down.
'We expect uncertainty to hit the markets this week on growing concerns of the swine flu spreading and that a possible cure for this is not yet certain,' said NetResearch Asia.
'Much like SARS did in 2003, this would deal another blow to the travel and leisure industry.' Singapore Airlines dived 48 cents to $10.12 and Singapore Telecommunications eased two cents to $2.47.
Banking shares closed lower. DBS and United Overseas Bank eased six cents apiece to $8.98 and $11.12 respectively, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp shed 12 cents to $5.31.
Among property shares, CapitaLand fell 12 cents to $2.47, City Developments retreated 16 cents to $5.67 and Keppel Land slid five cents to $1.71.
Motor vehicle firm Jardine Cycle and Carriage fell 40 cents to $12.66 while agricultural products supplier Olam International rose five cents to $1.68.
亚太股市大多下跌 猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事
亚洲股市大多走低，美国和墨西哥爆发的猪流感疫情令投资者谨慎行事，旅游类和航空类股遭受重创，但制药类股走强。香港股市收跌2.7%。
东京股市收盘微幅走高，受大型银行股上涨提振。但由于爆发猪流感疫情的消息导致美元走软，并引发投资者担心美国股市可能对这一消息作出负面反应，东京股市回吐了早盘时的大部分涨幅。日经225指数收盘涨18.35点，至8726.34点，涨幅0.2%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨3.05点，至833.10点，涨幅0.4%。市场成交量温和，约为20亿股。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨10点，至8750点，涨幅0.1%。
航空和酒店类股大幅下跌拖累香港股市收盘走低，墨西哥、美国和加拿大猪流感疫情的爆发引发了国际旅游业可能大幅下滑的担忧。中资银行股也走低，因在美国运通(American Express)和安联保险(Allianz)合计持有的2.3%的中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称：工商银行)股份中，有一半即将解除锁定。恒生指数跌418.43点，至14,840.42点，跌幅2.7%，盘中低点14,798.90点。成交额总计530.1亿港元，高于上周五的517.3亿港元。
中国股市连续第二个交易日走低。受猪流感疫情引发的担忧拖累，猪肉供应商和航空类股下挫。基准上证综合指数收盘下跌1.8%，至2405.35点，上周五跌0.6%。深证综合指数跌3.2%，至794.95点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走高，全天走势振荡。墨西哥爆发猪流感疫情在全球股市引起紧张情绪。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨19.3点，至3731.6点，涨幅0.5%，市场交投淡静。股指早盘曾一度升至五个交易日高点3780.8点，之后又回落至3680.6点低点。
新加坡股市收盘走低，受到猪流感疫情可能在全球蔓延的担忧拖累。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌34.24点，至1818.61点，跌幅1.8%。下跌股以427比125领先上涨股。成交量为18亿股，高于上周五的14亿股。
东京股市收盘微幅走高，受大型银行股上涨提振。但由于爆发猪流感疫情的消息导致美元走软，并引发投资者担心美国股市可能对这一消息作出负面反应，东京股市回吐了早盘时的大部分涨幅。日经225指数收盘涨18.35点，至8726.34点，涨幅0.2%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨3.05点，至833.10点，涨幅0.4%。市场成交量温和，约为20亿股。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨10点，至8750点，涨幅0.1%。
航空和酒店类股大幅下跌拖累香港股市收盘走低，墨西哥、美国和加拿大猪流感疫情的爆发引发了国际旅游业可能大幅下滑的担忧。中资银行股也走低，因在美国运通(American Express)和安联保险(Allianz)合计持有的2.3%的中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称：工商银行)股份中，有一半即将解除锁定。恒生指数跌418.43点，至14,840.42点，跌幅2.7%，盘中低点14,798.90点。成交额总计530.1亿港元，高于上周五的517.3亿港元。
中国股市连续第二个交易日走低。受猪流感疫情引发的担忧拖累，猪肉供应商和航空类股下挫。基准上证综合指数收盘下跌1.8%，至2405.35点，上周五跌0.6%。深证综合指数跌3.2%，至794.95点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走高，全天走势振荡。墨西哥爆发猪流感疫情在全球股市引起紧张情绪。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨19.3点，至3731.6点，涨幅0.5%，市场交投淡静。股指早盘曾一度升至五个交易日高点3780.8点，之后又回落至3680.6点低点。
新加坡股市收盘走低，受到猪流感疫情可能在全球蔓延的担忧拖累。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌34.24点，至1818.61点，跌幅1.8%。下跌股以427比125领先上涨股。成交量为18亿股，高于上周五的14亿股。
旅游业惊弓之鸟 云顶名胜世界一起跌
2009/04/27 17:54:51
●南洋商报
在市场预见猪流感的爆发将打击旅游业，并导致旗下博彩及酒店的业务放缓，云顶（Genting，3182，主板贸服股）今日股价受挫，写下5个月来最大跌幅。
云顶今日共下滑了0.28令吉或5.74%，以4.60令吉的价位挂收；子公司名胜世界（Resorts，4715，主板贸服股）亦难逃一劫，闭市时报2.39令吉，下挫0.15令吉或5.91%。
达证券分析员詹姆斯拉特南解释：“只要爆发任何疫病，这些股项皆会受到影响，现在只是投资情绪的问题，毕竟目前还没有任何新闻报导亚洲区域也受到猪流感的侵袭。”
原棕油价格大挫4.3% 另一方面，由于墨西哥在受感染的情况下将减低肉类及谷类的需求，进而影响总是跟随谷类市场波动的植物油价格，大马原棕油价格今日大挫4.3%。
7月份原棕油期货在开始后的几分钟便大跌了110令吉，至每公吨2475令吉的水平。
Source
●南洋商报
在市场预见猪流感的爆发将打击旅游业，并导致旗下博彩及酒店的业务放缓，云顶（Genting，3182，主板贸服股）今日股价受挫，写下5个月来最大跌幅。
云顶今日共下滑了0.28令吉或5.74%，以4.60令吉的价位挂收；子公司名胜世界（Resorts，4715，主板贸服股）亦难逃一劫，闭市时报2.39令吉，下挫0.15令吉或5.91%。
达证券分析员詹姆斯拉特南解释：“只要爆发任何疫病，这些股项皆会受到影响，现在只是投资情绪的问题，毕竟目前还没有任何新闻报导亚洲区域也受到猪流感的侵袭。”
原棕油价格大挫4.3% 另一方面，由于墨西哥在受感染的情况下将减低肉类及谷类的需求，进而影响总是跟随谷类市场波动的植物油价格，大马原棕油价格今日大挫4.3%。
7月份原棕油期货在开始后的几分钟便大跌了110令吉，至每公吨2475令吉的水平。
Source
Friday, April 24, 2009
Still no dividend payout for Genting shareholders
SINGAPORE: If you own Genting International shares, don't bet on receiving dividends anytime soon. It has been almost 20 years since the casino operator last rewarded its shareholders with a dividend payout. And its board of directors warned on Friday that shareholders may have to wait at least a few more years.
At Genting's annual general meeting, several shareholders asked the board when they would finally receive a dividend payout. The answer was "at least five years from now".
Managing director Justin Tan said the company's finances would likely remain stretched for the first few years after the opening of its Resorts World integrated resort on Sentosa in 2010.
This is because the firm has to repay almost S$1 billion in loan each year over the next five years. This is for a loan of almost S$4.2 billion that Genting had obtained from over 20 banks early last year to fund the building of the integrated resort.
But once the company has stabilised its gearing, Mr Tan said, it would definitely reward its shareholders. This answer was good enough for at least one shareholder, who declined to be named.
The shareholder said: "Dividends are important, but until and unless the company has established itself and there is some balance in the company, then it can start paying slowly, stage by stage, in order to keep the shareholders happy, if the company does make money. If it doesn't make money, you have to bear with it for a little while."
Genting's board said it is confident that Resorts World Sentosa will be completed within budget, as labour and material costs have stabilised. As such, the firm has no plans to launch a rights issue to raise more funds.
The board added that the integrated resort is on track for its soft opening in the first quarter of 2010. On day one, four of the six planned hotels at the resort should be ready, as well as a Universal Studios theme park and the casino.
Genting's CEO Lim Kok Thay said he is confident that Resorts World will be able to reach its target of seven to eight million visitors in its first year, and 10 million annually thereafter.
Source
At Genting's annual general meeting, several shareholders asked the board when they would finally receive a dividend payout. The answer was "at least five years from now".
Managing director Justin Tan said the company's finances would likely remain stretched for the first few years after the opening of its Resorts World integrated resort on Sentosa in 2010.
This is because the firm has to repay almost S$1 billion in loan each year over the next five years. This is for a loan of almost S$4.2 billion that Genting had obtained from over 20 banks early last year to fund the building of the integrated resort.
But once the company has stabilised its gearing, Mr Tan said, it would definitely reward its shareholders. This answer was good enough for at least one shareholder, who declined to be named.
The shareholder said: "Dividends are important, but until and unless the company has established itself and there is some balance in the company, then it can start paying slowly, stage by stage, in order to keep the shareholders happy, if the company does make money. If it doesn't make money, you have to bear with it for a little while."
Genting's board said it is confident that Resorts World Sentosa will be completed within budget, as labour and material costs have stabilised. As such, the firm has no plans to launch a rights issue to raise more funds.
The board added that the integrated resort is on track for its soft opening in the first quarter of 2010. On day one, four of the six planned hotels at the resort should be ready, as well as a Universal Studios theme park and the casino.
Genting's CEO Lim Kok Thay said he is confident that Resorts World will be able to reach its target of seven to eight million visitors in its first year, and 10 million annually thereafter.
Source
Resorts World family fun rooms
[top photo: A room in Festive Hotel. The family-friendly hotel has designed most of its room with loft beds for children, while parents will have separate sleeping chambers.]
A room in the Maxims Tower.When Resorts World at Sentosa opens next year, young visitors can crash out in their own loft beds after a day at the Universal Studios theme park.
The family-friendly Festive Hotel has designed most of its 390 rooms with loft beds. Parents have separate sleeping chambers.
For the kids, this means climbing a ladder to their private space for the night. Each loft bed can sleep two children.
Mr Patrick Burke, 51, principal architect at American firm Michael Graves & Associates, which is the architect for the Resorts World, gave the media a sneak preview of the rooms in three hotels at Resorts World yesterday.
The other two hotels are Maxims Tower and Hotel Michael. He said: 'The Festive Hotel is about having fun, and loft beds allow families with kids to share the same room.''
The $6.59-billion casino development is the firm's first project in Singapore. It is also doing the interiors for five of the six hotels on the site.
The three hotels which had the media preview yesterday and Hard Rock Hotel Singapore, which has its own team of designers, are scheduled to open in the first quarter of next year. They will account for about 1,350 hotel rooms out of the 1,800 rooms at the resort. Two other hotels will open later.
Mr Burke, who designed the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Hotels in Florida and Hotel New York at EuroDisneyland Paris, says the perfect hotel room is one that is 'warm and inviting and makes the visitor feel at home'.
But he throws in little surprises to cater to the needs of target guests.
For example, the loft beds and bright colours in the Festive Hotel make it fun for youngsters.
The 120-room Maxims Tower, aimed at high rollers, is furnished with deep woods and rich colours such as red and gold. The bathrooms come with a personal steam room.
The Hotel Michael, which has 470 rooms, is named after the famous American architect Michael Graves. All the rooms will come with a circular shower decorated with blue mosaic tiles, a replica of his personal shower room.
Resorts World at Sentosa says room rates will be announced at a later date.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
STI closes up 0.9%
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 0.90 per cent higher on Thursday as investors picked up bargains following recent declines, dealers said.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 16.57 points to end at 1,859.98 on volume of 1.55 billion shares worth $1.25 billion (US$831 million).
Gainers led losers 251 to 198, with 792 issues unchanged.
'It seems as though the correction in the last few days has been enough to get some bargain-hunting underway again,' said a trader at a local brokerage.
Banking shares were mixed. DBS eased two cents to $9.03 while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gained seven cents to $5.56 and United Overseas Bank closed 12 cents higher at $11.20.
Among property shares, CapitaLand fell five cents to $2.65 while City Developments climbed seven cents to $5.83 and Keppel Land rose 12 cents to $1.88.
Singapore Airlines advanced 22 cents to $10.82 while Singapore Telecommunications remained at $2.47.
Agribusiness group Wilmar International gained 18 cents to $3.61 and beverage maker Fraser and Neave edged up a cent to $2.60.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 16.57 points to end at 1,859.98 on volume of 1.55 billion shares worth $1.25 billion (US$831 million).
Gainers led losers 251 to 198, with 792 issues unchanged.
'It seems as though the correction in the last few days has been enough to get some bargain-hunting underway again,' said a trader at a local brokerage.
Banking shares were mixed. DBS eased two cents to $9.03 while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp gained seven cents to $5.56 and United Overseas Bank closed 12 cents higher at $11.20.
Among property shares, CapitaLand fell five cents to $2.65 while City Developments climbed seven cents to $5.83 and Keppel Land rose 12 cents to $1.88.
Singapore Airlines advanced 22 cents to $10.82 while Singapore Telecommunications remained at $2.47.
Agribusiness group Wilmar International gained 18 cents to $3.61 and beverage maker Fraser and Neave edged up a cent to $2.60.
亚太股市周四多数上涨
亚太股市周四多数收高，汽车股在东京股市领涨。中国股市午盘后自低位反弹，并带动香港股市收复前一日的部分失地。
东京股市周四走高，汽车类股领涨，因为在高盛(Goldman Sachs)将汽车类股评级上调至具有吸引力的级别之后，市场预期全球汽车销售将有所回暖。日经225指数涨119.71点，至8847.01点，涨幅1.4%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨9.54点，至839.50点，涨幅1.2%。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨80点，至8830点，涨幅0.9%。
香港股市走高，汇丰控股(HSBC)领涨，受投资者对金融类股的逢低买盘以及中国大陆股市的涨势提振。恒生指数收盘涨336.01点，至15,214.46点，涨幅2.3%，股指本交易日早些时候一度升至15,222.20点的高位。中国股市收盘小幅走高，因投资者逢低吸纳金属和煤炭类股，但是围绕企业业绩的担忧限制了股指涨幅。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨0.1%，至2463.95点，盘中低点为2422.79点。深证综合指数上涨0.7%，至825.22点。
澳大利亚股市涨至三日高点，受指数基金买盘、消费必需品行业的并购活动以及瑞信(Credit Suisse)好于预期的业绩等诸多因素推动。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘上涨74.8点，至3743.0点，涨幅2.0%；盘中一度触及3745.4点。成交量放大。此前，股指自上周五触及3851.2点的五个月新高后，已连续三个交易日走低。今日的上扬扭转了市场的颓势。
新加坡股市走高，受股市近期下跌之后出现的一些逢低买盘推动，但分析师们表示，市场短期内将维持振荡。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨16.57点，至1859.98点，涨幅0.9%。大盘251至股票上涨，198只股票下跌。成交量为16亿股，低于周三的17亿股。
东京股市周四走高，汽车类股领涨，因为在高盛(Goldman Sachs)将汽车类股评级上调至具有吸引力的级别之后，市场预期全球汽车销售将有所回暖。日经225指数涨119.71点，至8847.01点，涨幅1.4%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数涨9.54点，至839.50点，涨幅1.2%。大阪证券交易所，六月日经225指数期货收盘涨80点，至8830点，涨幅0.9%。
香港股市走高，汇丰控股(HSBC)领涨，受投资者对金融类股的逢低买盘以及中国大陆股市的涨势提振。恒生指数收盘涨336.01点，至15,214.46点，涨幅2.3%，股指本交易日早些时候一度升至15,222.20点的高位。中国股市收盘小幅走高，因投资者逢低吸纳金属和煤炭类股，但是围绕企业业绩的担忧限制了股指涨幅。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨0.1%，至2463.95点，盘中低点为2422.79点。深证综合指数上涨0.7%，至825.22点。
澳大利亚股市涨至三日高点，受指数基金买盘、消费必需品行业的并购活动以及瑞信(Credit Suisse)好于预期的业绩等诸多因素推动。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘上涨74.8点，至3743.0点，涨幅2.0%；盘中一度触及3745.4点。成交量放大。此前，股指自上周五触及3851.2点的五个月新高后，已连续三个交易日走低。今日的上扬扭转了市场的颓势。
新加坡股市走高，受股市近期下跌之后出现的一些逢低买盘推动，但分析师们表示，市场短期内将维持振荡。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘涨16.57点，至1859.98点，涨幅0.9%。大盘251至股票上涨，198只股票下跌。成交量为16亿股，低于周三的17亿股。
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Star Cruises shares surge 65 percent
Star Cruises Ltd (麗星郵輪), Asia’s biggest cruise operator, surged by a record 65 percent in Hong Kong trading after China said it would allow cruise tours to Taiwan to stop in the city.
Star Cruises rose as much as HK$0.53 to HK$1.35, the most since being listed in Hong Kong in 2000, and traded at HK$1.18 as of 2:35pm.That boosted the stock’s gains for this year to 97 percent, compared with a 10 percent climb for the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
After his meeting with Chinese authorities, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) said on Saturday in a press briefing at the Boao forum in Hainan that China would allow cruise tours from mainland ports to stop at Hong Kong en route to Taiwan.
Star Cruises said in November it plans to begin a service between Taiwan and China by the end of the first quarter of this year.
ON THE UP
The Singapore-traded shares of Star Cruises rose 26 percent, the most in two years.The cruise operator isn’t aware of the reasons for the increases in price and trading volume, it said in statements to the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges yesterday.
Calls to the Hong Kong-based office of Star Cruises weren’t immediately returned.
RESTRICTIONS RELAXEDHong Kong will relax travel restrictions for Taiwanese visitors entering the city, the city’s government said in a statement on April 15.
Taiwanese residents with a valid travel permit for China will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong for seven days.Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian should form a regional economic alliance to improve their competitiveness, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) said last week after meeting in Hong Kong with Stephen Lam (林瑞麟), the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs.Taiwan plans to start talks with China on cross-strait economic cooperation at the end of this year, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chao Chien-min (趙建民) said last week.
Source
Star Cruises rose as much as HK$0.53 to HK$1.35, the most since being listed in Hong Kong in 2000, and traded at HK$1.18 as of 2:35pm.That boosted the stock’s gains for this year to 97 percent, compared with a 10 percent climb for the benchmark Hang Seng Index.
After his meeting with Chinese authorities, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) said on Saturday in a press briefing at the Boao forum in Hainan that China would allow cruise tours from mainland ports to stop at Hong Kong en route to Taiwan.
Star Cruises said in November it plans to begin a service between Taiwan and China by the end of the first quarter of this year.
ON THE UP
The Singapore-traded shares of Star Cruises rose 26 percent, the most in two years.The cruise operator isn’t aware of the reasons for the increases in price and trading volume, it said in statements to the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges yesterday.
Calls to the Hong Kong-based office of Star Cruises weren’t immediately returned.
RESTRICTIONS RELAXEDHong Kong will relax travel restrictions for Taiwanese visitors entering the city, the city’s government said in a statement on April 15.
Taiwanese residents with a valid travel permit for China will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong for seven days.Taiwan, Hong Kong, Guangdong and Fujian should form a regional economic alliance to improve their competitiveness, Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) said last week after meeting in Hong Kong with Stephen Lam (林瑞麟), the city’s secretary for constitutional and mainland affairs.Taiwan plans to start talks with China on cross-strait economic cooperation at the end of this year, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chao Chien-min (趙建民) said last week.
Source
Monday, April 20, 2009
劉兆祥: 知悉麗星(0678.HK)可星港套戥能免炒錯市
信誠證券投資部經理劉兆祥表示，今天港股先跌後升，最終是向上升穿還是跌穿上升通道的支持線，要多看一段時間，但在現時仍然以不變應萬變的心態，即靜侯突破位出現才跟隨趨勢而行。值得留意，這種完美的通道，未突破前千萬不要逆勢而行，當然是否跟隨向上，便要看投資者的膽量。
倫敦(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)匯控(0005.HK)(0005.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)似乎要跌穿上升軌，如果上升軌失守，加上近日英鎊轉弱，便有可能跌回50元水平。至於市場經常出現不理性活動，正如今早筆者所言，中央挽救，個別股份可以受惠，但要小心當中一隻是麗星郵輪(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)(0678.HK)(0678.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，股價開市即炒高，最多更升至$1.35，但隨後大幅回落。
如果炒開這隻股份的投資者到清楚，這隻股票在香港及新加坡(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)上市，因此投資者可以進行套戥活動，而且過去一段時間，都是新加坡股份高於香港超過$0.10，而今天新加坡股份並沒有上升，但香港竟然升至$1.30，較新加坡高出$0.40，自然有大量套戥者加入沽貨行列，使股價回落。
到中段時，新加坡股份才接力向上，但以收市計，香港股份仍高於新加坡$0.10，如果明白這個關係，今天便不會炒錯市。 這個世界往往是一物治一物，例如被小股東痛罵的電盈(0008.HK)(0008.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)主席李先生，卻千不該，萬不該，竟然找到這些律師代表上庭，看到這個律師的表現，真的大嘆難道香港沒有人才嗎？筆者作為電盈的股東，深信私有化的理據在電盈那邊(撤除是否有一致行動的情況)，因此一定成功，竟然出現上訴情況，已經大跌眼鏡(因為這些律師提出的理據不能服人)，而且隨時輸掉這場官司，就算能贏，仍然面對終審法院(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)，如果李先生能聘請清洪作為律師(一定不可能，因為他是英皇的御用律師)，一定在第一堂已經控制大局，贏得極精彩，怎會到目前仍未分勝負呢？
其實今次事件，正好反映監管機構沒有監管中央結算，使中央結算在代客投票前，沒有盡代理的本份，只為客戶投票而沒有計算人頭數量，才是今次問題的所在。
Source
倫敦(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)匯控(0005.HK)(0005.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)似乎要跌穿上升軌，如果上升軌失守，加上近日英鎊轉弱，便有可能跌回50元水平。至於市場經常出現不理性活動，正如今早筆者所言，中央挽救，個別股份可以受惠，但要小心當中一隻是麗星郵輪(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)(0678.HK)(0678.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，股價開市即炒高，最多更升至$1.35，但隨後大幅回落。
如果炒開這隻股份的投資者到清楚，這隻股票在香港及新加坡(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)上市，因此投資者可以進行套戥活動，而且過去一段時間，都是新加坡股份高於香港超過$0.10，而今天新加坡股份並沒有上升，但香港竟然升至$1.30，較新加坡高出$0.40，自然有大量套戥者加入沽貨行列，使股價回落。
到中段時，新加坡股份才接力向上，但以收市計，香港股份仍高於新加坡$0.10，如果明白這個關係，今天便不會炒錯市。 這個世界往往是一物治一物，例如被小股東痛罵的電盈(0008.HK)(0008.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)主席李先生，卻千不該，萬不該，竟然找到這些律師代表上庭，看到這個律師的表現，真的大嘆難道香港沒有人才嗎？筆者作為電盈的股東，深信私有化的理據在電盈那邊(撤除是否有一致行動的情況)，因此一定成功，竟然出現上訴情況，已經大跌眼鏡(因為這些律師提出的理據不能服人)，而且隨時輸掉這場官司，就算能贏，仍然面對終審法院(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)，如果李先生能聘請清洪作為律師(一定不可能，因為他是英皇的御用律師)，一定在第一堂已經控制大局，贏得極精彩，怎會到目前仍未分勝負呢？
其實今次事件，正好反映監管機構沒有監管中央結算，使中央結算在代客投票前，沒有盡代理的本份，只為客戶投票而沒有計算人頭數量，才是今次問題的所在。
Source
丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%；但股价涨势看来过度
香港时间1502（道琼斯）--丽星邮轮(0678.HK)高涨42.7%至1.17港元，成交额猛增至2,090万港元，而上周五成交量只有1,000股，原因是香港媒体报导，中国将推出进一步支持性措施帮助香港。措施包括，容许内地旅游团乘坐以香港为母港的邮轮，前往台湾旅游。不过股价涨势看来过度，盘中高位1.35港元不太可能再度企及，因为暂时还缺乏具体的实施细节；难以评估影响，《英文虎报》估计，新计划每年可为香港带来额外1亿港元的收入，丽星邮轮可获利多少目前可能难以估算，但股价似乎远远跑在了基本面的前面。交易屏幕上，沽售指令远超过买入指令，表明更多投资者把股价上涨看作是平仓机会而不是追高。
Source
Source
Sunday, April 19, 2009
GENTING: Resorts World Sentosa to contribute from 2010
THE GENTING GROUP will be the biggest winner and we reiterate our Buy recommendation - so said Merrill Lynch last week in a report evaluating how different sectors stand to gain with the opening of the integrated resorts.
However, FY09 may be the third year in a row that SGX-listed Genting International loses money. This will change when its integrated resort opens in Sentosa next year.
The broker believes the integrated resort will start contributing to Genting’s revenues in 2H10, turning around pretax loss of S$148.5 million in FY08 as well as expected losses this year.
With operations in Australia, USA, Malaysia, the Philippines and UK, the leading integrated resort developer has lost one cent per share in FY08 and 5 cents in FY07.Merrill Lynch's and other brokers’ consensus on Bloomberg is that Genting International will lose another 2.5 cents per share for FY09 before making half a cent per share for FY10.
Resort World @ Sentosa’s much-hyped amenities are a casino, four hotels and a 7,300-seat ballroom, as well as the first Universal Studio theme park in Southeast Asia will soft launch in the first quarter of next year.
The movie theme park will transport visitors into 6 unique movie settings and simulate experiences of movie protagonists.But be it Resorts World @ Sentosa or Marina Bay Sands, whoever opens doors first will claim first mover advantage.
After all, some gamblers may not visit both casinos, deterred by the prospect of paying entrance fees twice.Merrill Lynch estimates the gaming market in 2010 to be about S$3-4 billion.
Based on this, it projects the integrated resort’s total earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation (EBITDA) will reach S$720 million by 2011, of which gaming will contribute 85-90%.
The integrated resorts are expected to increase tourist arrivals to Singapore by 25% from a forecasted 9 million visitors in 2009.Of this, Genting expects Universal Studios to attract about 5 million visitors a year, comprising of a 60:40 foreigner to local ratio.
These estimates appear conservative, considering that Hong Kong’s Disneyland has consistently achieved 4 to 5 million visitors a year since opening in 2005. Genting International’s stock price last closed at 61 cents per share on Friday.
Source
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Is SGX price surge overdone?
THE stock market, they say, is driven by hope, greed and fear.
In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.
And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.
This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.
Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.
But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.
The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.
Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.
This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.
'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.
'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.
Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.
OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'
While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.
As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.
In simple terms, greed led investors to push stock prices to dizzying heights some two years back, while fear drove investors out as the economy headed south.
And judging by the recent stock market rally, hope appears to be creeping back into the system.
Anecdotally, there is evidence that investors starved for some stock market action have been nibbling away.
This has benefited the stock of Singapore Exchange (SGX) as some investors went on a buying spree in the hope that the market could have bottomed.
Within a short span of three months, the stock has recovered some 25 per cent in price and has even outperformed the Straits Times Index.
But should investors be hopeful? Several analysts have noted in their comments on SGX's Q3 earnings that the speed of the stock's recovery was not justified.
The exchange reported a 45.5 per cent dive in quarterly net profit to $55.3 million from $101.5 million a year ago.
Though the earnings broadly met expectations, there were surprises in the derivatives trading segment, as net derivatives clearing revenue dropped 20 per cent to $31.2 million.
This suggests that SGX's derivatives trading - seen as the means to offset the slump in securities revenue - may not have been as strong as earlier touted.
'As the derivatives engine sputtered, SGX's earnings stream is not looking as robust anymore,' said CIMB-GK analyst Kenneth Ng, who downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform'. 'Time to take money off the table,' he said in a client note.
'On a more structural note, we wonder if the blow-up over the S-chip asset class means that listing pipelines and turnover velocities for SGX will be hampered in the years ahead, making HKSE (Hong Kong stock exchange) the preferred exchange,' he added.
Many have also hesitated to call a bottom, despite the improved average daily trading value seen in April. It now hovers around $1 billion, as compared with $910 million in Q3.
OCBC analyst Carmen Lee noted yesterday that it was too early to call for a recovery. 'While some indicators have shown signs of bottoming-out, our view remains that a sustained economic recovery is necessary for confidence to return to the market.'
While some see the GDP figures of Q1 as indicating that the economy has hit the floor, analysts have cautioned that other factors such as consumer spending would determine a turnaround.
And as unemployment is set to rise, spending will be crimped, indicating a potential fall in investor interest over the next few quarters as pent-up demand pushing the markets up now fades away.
As Kim Eng analyst Pauline Lee puts it, there has been 'an overdose of optimism'. 'SGX's sharp price rally . . . and premium valuations to its peers look overdone,' she said in a report yesterday.
So take a swig from your cup and call it half-empty. This burst of hope that shares of SGX are riding on could pop soon.
三重底的研判与投资技巧
三重底。三重底既是头肩底的变异形态，也是W形底的复合形态，三重底相对于W形底和头肩底而言比较少见，却又是比后两者更加坚实的底部形态，而且形态形成后的上攻力度也更强。其形态的成立必须等待有效向上突破颈线位时才能最终确认。因为，三重底突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者即使在形态确立后介入，仍有较大的获利空间。
三重底的研判技巧：
在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是：三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的，三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形，未来发展极有可能向三重底演化，至于最终是否能构筑成三重底，并形成一轮上升行情，还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是：
1、三重底形态的三次低点时间，通常至少要保持在10～15个交易日以上，如果时间间隔过小，往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中，底部形态的构筑基础不牢固，即使形成了三重底，由于其形态过小，后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔9天，第二和第三低点之间间隔11天，只是勉强符合标准。
2、三重底的三次上攻行情中，成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态，否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时，在期间的两次上升行情中，成交量始终不能有效放大的话，将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。
3、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中，如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量，仍然会功败垂成。所以，三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位，才能有望展开新一轮升势。
投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作，或者已经从表面上形成了三重底，就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入，这是非常危险的。因为，有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造，但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话，三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长，底部较为坚实。因此，突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成，股价成功突破颈线位之后，才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入，虽然有可能获取更多地利润，但从风险收益比率方面计算，反而得不偿失。
三重底的研判技巧：
在三重底的研判过程中最值得注意的要点是：三重底不是依据有三个低点就能形成的，三针探底的形态只能表示股价的走势图形具有三重底的雏形，未来发展极有可能向三重底演化，至于最终是否能构筑成三重底，并形成一轮上升行情，还需要进一步的检验。三重底成立的确认标准是：
1、三重底形态的三次低点时间，通常至少要保持在10～15个交易日以上，如果时间间隔过小，往往说明行情只是处于震荡整理中，底部形态的构筑基础不牢固，即使形成了三重底，由于其形态过小，后市上攻力度也会有限。而近期的三重底的第一和第二低点之间间隔9天，第二和第三低点之间间隔11天，只是勉强符合标准。
2、三重底的三次上攻行情中，成交量要呈现出逐次放大的势态，否则极有可能反弹失败。如果大盘在构筑前面的双底形态时，在期间的两次上升行情中，成交量始终不能有效放大的话，将极有可能导致三重底形态的构筑失败。
3、在三重底的最后一次的上攻行情中，如果没有增量资金积极介入的放量，仍然会功败垂成。所以，三重底的最后一次上涨必须轻松向上穿越颈线位时才能最终确认。股价必须带量突破颈线位，才能有望展开新一轮升势。
投资者在实际操作中不能仅仅看到有三次探底动作，或者已经从表面上形成了三重底，就一厢情愿的认定是三重底而盲目买入，这是非常危险的。因为，有时即使在走势上完成了形态的构造，但如果不能最终放量突破其颈线位的话，三重底仍有功败垂成的可能。三重底由于构筑时间长，底部较为坚实。因此，突破颈线位后的理论涨幅，将大于或等于低点到颈线位的距离。所以，投资者需要耐心等待三重底形态彻底构筑完成，股价成功突破颈线位之后，才是最佳的建仓时机。大可不必在仅有三个低点和形态还没有定型时过早介入，虽然有可能获取更多地利润，但从风险收益比率方面计算，反而得不偿失。
受客户Petroprod临时清盘影响 胜科海事股价下跌
受客户Petroprod公司临时清盘(provisional liquidation)事件影响，胜科海事(Sembcorp Marine)的股价昨天一度跌至两个多星期以来的新低。
胜科海事的股价昨天一度下滑至2.02元，跌幅高达9.4％，早上10时24分时则回升到2.09元，并在闭市时回涨到2.13元，全日跌幅为0.10元(即4.5％)。
挪威石油公司Petroprod公司是在开曼群岛(Cayman Islands)注册的，这家公司日前被令临时清盘。
胜科海事独资子公司裕廊船厂(Jurong Shipyard)在2007年5月，曾获得Petroprod子公司——Petroprod D&P I Ltd一份价值4亿4200万美元(约6亿7000万新元)的合同，为对方建造一座能在恶劣环境中运作的升降式钻油台(jack-up rig)。裕廊船厂原本预计在2010年中交货。
Petroprod的另外一家子公司Petroprod 1也把一个将现有油槽船(tanker)改造成浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的项目合同，颁发给裕廊船厂。因此，两项合同的总值超过5亿美元。
胜科海事日前发表文告指出，裕廊船厂已接获Petroprod被令临时清盘的通知，裕廊船厂目前正向Petroprod的临时(公司)清算人(KPMG公司)索取更多有关资料，若有必要，集团也会提供新的消息。集团相信，这起事件不会对这两项合同造成任何实质影响。
一般来说，钻油台工程都需要客户以竣工程度来定期支付工程期款。据媒体报道，胜科海事相信已为钻油台工程收取了约一半的工程费。
据挪威报章TradeWinds报道，Petroprod的机构债券持有人向法庭申请清盘令。Petroprod为这两个项目融资所发行的债券面值总值约为3亿美元。
然而，据一名知情者透露，这些债券持有人希望这两个项目还能继续进行，因为他们相信项目的价值，但却因为某些事件而对Petroprod的管理层没有信心。
今年2月，Petroprod也曾表示因为信贷紧缩，要获得贷款和进行证券融资不容易。
由于原油价格已从去年7月的顶峰下滑了66％，环球信贷紧缩的问题也促使一些钻油台经营者取消与船厂的订单或延迟交货日期。
Source
胜科海事的股价昨天一度下滑至2.02元，跌幅高达9.4％，早上10时24分时则回升到2.09元，并在闭市时回涨到2.13元，全日跌幅为0.10元(即4.5％)。
挪威石油公司Petroprod公司是在开曼群岛(Cayman Islands)注册的，这家公司日前被令临时清盘。
胜科海事独资子公司裕廊船厂(Jurong Shipyard)在2007年5月，曾获得Petroprod子公司——Petroprod D&P I Ltd一份价值4亿4200万美元(约6亿7000万新元)的合同，为对方建造一座能在恶劣环境中运作的升降式钻油台(jack-up rig)。裕廊船厂原本预计在2010年中交货。
Petroprod的另外一家子公司Petroprod 1也把一个将现有油槽船(tanker)改造成浮式生产储油船(FPSO)的项目合同，颁发给裕廊船厂。因此，两项合同的总值超过5亿美元。
胜科海事日前发表文告指出，裕廊船厂已接获Petroprod被令临时清盘的通知，裕廊船厂目前正向Petroprod的临时(公司)清算人(KPMG公司)索取更多有关资料，若有必要，集团也会提供新的消息。集团相信，这起事件不会对这两项合同造成任何实质影响。
一般来说，钻油台工程都需要客户以竣工程度来定期支付工程期款。据媒体报道，胜科海事相信已为钻油台工程收取了约一半的工程费。
据挪威报章TradeWinds报道，Petroprod的机构债券持有人向法庭申请清盘令。Petroprod为这两个项目融资所发行的债券面值总值约为3亿美元。
然而，据一名知情者透露，这些债券持有人希望这两个项目还能继续进行，因为他们相信项目的价值，但却因为某些事件而对Petroprod的管理层没有信心。
今年2月，Petroprod也曾表示因为信贷紧缩，要获得贷款和进行证券融资不容易。
由于原油价格已从去年7月的顶峰下滑了66％，环球信贷紧缩的问题也促使一些钻油台经营者取消与船厂的订单或延迟交货日期。
Source
荣南获迪拜地铁4040万元合约
荣南控股（Yongnam Holdings）获得总值4040万元的三项迪拜地铁（Dubai Metro）合约。
其中最大的一项合约价值3080万元，要为12个地铁站提供钢铁结构的供应、制造和移交等工程。这三项合约预计会于今年年底前完工，将对集团的营收和经理产生积极的贡献。
Source
其中最大的一项合约价值3080万元，要为12个地铁站提供钢铁结构的供应、制造和移交等工程。这三项合约预计会于今年年底前完工，将对集团的营收和经理产生积极的贡献。
Source
九天化工集团（Jiutian Chemical）
九天化工集团是中国主要的二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）生产商之一。它本来属于中国河南安阳市国营企业安阳化学工业集团的一部分，后来经由管理层收购而分拆成立私人企业。
它前日发出盈警，预期集团截至3月底的09财年首季度业绩会出现净亏损，指出二甲基甲酰胺的需求因全球经济放缓而继续疲弱，以致它的厂房使用率只有55％。它料在本月27日发布季度业绩。联昌国际研究早在去年就停止对它作出分析，因此没有给予它任何评级和目标价。
九天化工集团昨日收报7分，跌半分。
（联昌国际研究，CIMB-GK Research）
Source
它前日发出盈警，预期集团截至3月底的09财年首季度业绩会出现净亏损，指出二甲基甲酰胺的需求因全球经济放缓而继续疲弱，以致它的厂房使用率只有55％。它料在本月27日发布季度业绩。联昌国际研究早在去年就停止对它作出分析，因此没有给予它任何评级和目标价。
九天化工集团昨日收报7分，跌半分。
（联昌国际研究，CIMB-GK Research）
Source
Thursday, April 16, 2009
美股收盘上涨；投资者关注经济复苏的迹象
美国股市大幅上扬，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘上涨逾100点；因为投资者关注国际纸业公司(International Paper Co., IP)、英特尔(Intel Co., INTC)的表态及联邦政府数据中体现出来的经济需求改善迹象。道琼斯指数涨109.44点，至8029.62点，涨幅1.38%；距离近期收盘高位还有不到60点。标准普尔500指数涨10.56点，至852.06点，涨幅1.25%；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.08点，至1626.8点，涨幅0.07%；不过英特尔下跌限制了该指数涨势。
在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)于美东时间下午2点公布黄皮书(Beige Book)后，美国股市进一步上涨。
虽然整体消费支出依然疲软，但部分辖区报告称，销售额小幅上升或降幅放缓。房地产市场情况类似，市况仍然疲软，但部分辖区称住房销售有所回升。
据美国全国住房建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders, 简称NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数(Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)显示，4月份单户型预售屋建筑商信心指数上升了5点，至14点，为2003年5月份以来的最大单月升幅。
这是该指数六个月以来首次升至两位数字。国际纸业公司股价涨1.58美元，至8.80美元，涨幅22%，因德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)此前援引该公司管理人士的话称，对经济敏感的市场即将复苏。英特尔股价跌39美分，至15.62美分，跌幅2.4%，该公司此前警告称，预计第二财政季度收入与第一财季持平或略低于第一财季。
不过，英特尔表示，个人电脑市场最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)经济学家David Resler表示，周二的一个积极信号是库存销售比率在下降。他表示，这是经济复苏或反弹的先期迹象。
在美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)于美东时间下午2点公布黄皮书(Beige Book)后，美国股市进一步上涨。
虽然整体消费支出依然疲软，但部分辖区报告称，销售额小幅上升或降幅放缓。房地产市场情况类似，市况仍然疲软，但部分辖区称住房销售有所回升。
据美国全国住房建筑商协会(National Association of Home Builders, 简称NAHB)/富国银行住房市场指数(Wells Fargo Housing Market Index)显示，4月份单户型预售屋建筑商信心指数上升了5点，至14点，为2003年5月份以来的最大单月升幅。
这是该指数六个月以来首次升至两位数字。国际纸业公司股价涨1.58美元，至8.80美元，涨幅22%，因德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)此前援引该公司管理人士的话称，对经济敏感的市场即将复苏。英特尔股价跌39美分，至15.62美分，跌幅2.4%，该公司此前警告称，预计第二财政季度收入与第一财季持平或略低于第一财季。
不过，英特尔表示，个人电脑市场最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。野村证券公司(Nomura Securities)经济学家David Resler表示，周二的一个积极信号是库存销售比率在下降。他表示，这是经济复苏或反弹的先期迹象。
市场对中国经济数据寄予厚望
中国周四最好能够传出一些好消息来。
毕竟，最近正是在稍微令人欣慰的中国经济数据的支撑下，亚洲股市才实现了大幅飙升。
正是因为中国，市场才抱着“下滑势头放缓就相当于上扬”的看法，认为市况的逐步好转总比没有任何变化强。
中国方面一直在传出信贷规模持续上升的消息，但多数分析师怀疑这种状况能否持久。与此同时，亚洲其他地区则显示出对华出口略微有所复苏的迹象。
上述情况使市场忽视了国内生产总值(GDP)、工业产值及贸易等那些显示经济依然普遍疲软的数据。新加坡海峡时报指数周二上涨1.1%，尽管此前公布的第一季度GDP数据十分糟糕，同时新加坡政府还将2009年GDP降幅预期从此前的2%-5%下调至了6%-9%。
不过投资者却选择将注意力放在新加坡3月份出口数据上。该数据显示，与韩国和台湾类似，新加坡的出口一定程度上也受到了中国需求的提振。但投资者实际上是在孤注一掷。市场起先曾将希望寄托在美国经济复苏上，现在又开始指望中国经济的恢复。
这样做的危险在于，一旦中国不再传来利好的经济数据，那么就会促使近期风险偏好高涨的汇市、股市以及金属市场等出现回调，部分市场人士认为，这种情况不可避免。
中国周四将公布包括GDP数据在内的一系列第一季度经济数据。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，中国第一季度GDP将较上年同期增长6.0%，低于去年第四季度6.8%的增幅。
对中国而言，6.0% GDP的增幅已是7年来最低水平，但考虑到世界大多数国家的状况，这仍是相当不错的增长率。市场还对中国季度性经济数据寄予厚望。（中国政府通常不公布季度性经济数据，但多数经济学家会从官方数据中推算出季度数据。）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏预计，经季节性因素调整后，中国第一季度GDP折合成年率将较上季度增长6.8%，根据估算的第四季度GDP增速为1.5%。市场普遍预计，定于周四公布的固定资产投资、工业产值及消费者价格指数(CPI)等数据将对中国经济增长前景构成支撑。
鉴于市场如此倾向于认为周四公布的中国经济数据会表现强劲，揭晓结果的责任就落在中国政府身上了，中国政府或者让市场如愿以偿或者戳破这个希望气球。
毕竟，最近正是在稍微令人欣慰的中国经济数据的支撑下，亚洲股市才实现了大幅飙升。
正是因为中国，市场才抱着“下滑势头放缓就相当于上扬”的看法，认为市况的逐步好转总比没有任何变化强。
中国方面一直在传出信贷规模持续上升的消息，但多数分析师怀疑这种状况能否持久。与此同时，亚洲其他地区则显示出对华出口略微有所复苏的迹象。
上述情况使市场忽视了国内生产总值(GDP)、工业产值及贸易等那些显示经济依然普遍疲软的数据。新加坡海峡时报指数周二上涨1.1%，尽管此前公布的第一季度GDP数据十分糟糕，同时新加坡政府还将2009年GDP降幅预期从此前的2%-5%下调至了6%-9%。
不过投资者却选择将注意力放在新加坡3月份出口数据上。该数据显示，与韩国和台湾类似，新加坡的出口一定程度上也受到了中国需求的提振。但投资者实际上是在孤注一掷。市场起先曾将希望寄托在美国经济复苏上，现在又开始指望中国经济的恢复。
这样做的危险在于，一旦中国不再传来利好的经济数据，那么就会促使近期风险偏好高涨的汇市、股市以及金属市场等出现回调，部分市场人士认为，这种情况不可避免。
中国周四将公布包括GDP数据在内的一系列第一季度经济数据。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，中国第一季度GDP将较上年同期增长6.0%，低于去年第四季度6.8%的增幅。
对中国而言，6.0% GDP的增幅已是7年来最低水平，但考虑到世界大多数国家的状况，这仍是相当不错的增长率。市场还对中国季度性经济数据寄予厚望。（中国政府通常不公布季度性经济数据，但多数经济学家会从官方数据中推算出季度数据。）德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏预计，经季节性因素调整后，中国第一季度GDP折合成年率将较上季度增长6.8%，根据估算的第四季度GDP增速为1.5%。市场普遍预计，定于周四公布的固定资产投资、工业产值及消费者价格指数(CPI)等数据将对中国经济增长前景构成支撑。
鉴于市场如此倾向于认为周四公布的中国经济数据会表现强劲，揭晓结果的责任就落在中国政府身上了，中国政府或者让市场如愿以偿或者戳破这个希望气球。
亚太股市周三涨跌互见
亚太股市周三涨跌互见，一些投资者担心近期股市涨幅过大，因而获利回吐。受英特尔的悲观预期影响，科技股成为领跌板块。
东京股市下跌，因前夜美国股市遭遇获利回吐，令日本金融及科技类股承压，另外日圆反弹也打击了股市人气。日经225指数下跌99.72点，至8742.96点，跌幅1.1%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数下跌8.17点，至835.25点，跌幅1%。市场成交量温和，约为23亿股。
对中国经济反弹以及中国政府将推出更多经济刺激措施的预期推动香港股市连续第三个交易日走高，指数权重股中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd., 0941.HK, 简称：中国移动)补涨，推高大盘。恒生指数收盘上涨89.46点，至15,669.62点，涨幅0.57%，盘中交易区间15,213.39点至15,669.85点。
中国股市连续第五个交易日收高；中国明日将公布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。不过，继近期上涨后，股市在本交易日大部分时间横盘整理。上证综现甘张陶?.4%，至2536.06点。深证综合指数涨1.2%，至860.37点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走低，近期买进银行股的投资者在美国金融企业公布业绩前获利回吐。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌5.4点，至3747.5点，跌幅0.1%。
新加坡股市收盘走高，收复了最初追随美国股市前夜跌势而产生的失地，主要受到投资者对小型股的持续需求推动，此外，市场对中国政府将推出额外经济刺激方案的预期推动香港股市反弹，这也给新加坡股市带来指引。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨8.97点，至1,905.99点，涨幅0.5%。
东京股市下跌，因前夜美国股市遭遇获利回吐，令日本金融及科技类股承压，另外日圆反弹也打击了股市人气。日经225指数下跌99.72点，至8742.96点，跌幅1.1%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数下跌8.17点，至835.25点，跌幅1%。市场成交量温和，约为23亿股。
对中国经济反弹以及中国政府将推出更多经济刺激措施的预期推动香港股市连续第三个交易日走高，指数权重股中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd., 0941.HK, 简称：中国移动)补涨，推高大盘。恒生指数收盘上涨89.46点，至15,669.62点，涨幅0.57%，盘中交易区间15,213.39点至15,669.85点。
中国股市连续第五个交易日收高；中国明日将公布第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。不过，继近期上涨后，股市在本交易日大部分时间横盘整理。上证综现甘张陶?.4%，至2536.06点。深证综合指数涨1.2%，至860.37点。
澳大利亚股市小幅走低，近期买进银行股的投资者在美国金融企业公布业绩前获利回吐。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌5.4点，至3747.5点，跌幅0.1%。
新加坡股市收盘走高，收复了最初追随美国股市前夜跌势而产生的失地，主要受到投资者对小型股的持续需求推动，此外，市场对中国政府将推出额外经济刺激方案的预期推动香港股市反弹，这也给新加坡股市带来指引。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘上涨8.97点，至1,905.99点，涨幅0.5%。
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
How to avoid a short squeeze As stocks rally and feds circle, short sellers face tough calls
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Short sellers are being ambushed from all sides, from tighter regulations to double-digit stock gains. But there are ways to get out of the jungle alive.
Selling stocks short, which worked well as the market plunged to its bear-market lows, came back to bite practitioners as the broad market staged a swift, double-digit rally over the last month.
A watchful eye on contrarian indicators, heavily shorted stocks and safe-haven investment flows -- plus an ear for market sentiment -- can help investors determine when it's time to get out of, or back into, a short-selling strategy.
"You want to look for extremes," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds, which runs $5 billion in exchange-traded and mutual funds, including leveraged short funds such as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares.
That largely means watching the metrics that signal investor fears have gone too far, such as highs in the CBOE Volatility Index, called the Vix, and gold prices, as well as lows in Treasury-bond yields and investor-sentiment surveys. When investors are hunkering down in cash, Treasurys and gold, the thinking goes, stocks may have sold off too much and are ready to rally.
"A huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines and in safe havens creates a recipe for a snapback," Brigandi said.
Retail investors can engage in short sales -- placing bets that an individual stock or a broader sector will fall -- by borrowing stock through a margin account or purchasing exchange-traded funds or mutual funds that engage in short trades. E-Trade Financial Corp and Scottrade, for instance, allow investors to sell stock short with as little as $2,000 in a margin account.
Prescription for heartburn
To execute a short sale, investors borrow stock, then sell it. If the shares fall, they can buy them back at a lower price, return the securities to the lender and pocket the difference as profit.
It was an attractive strategy as U.S. stocks were moving toward 12-year lows earlier this year. But in the past month, they rebounded quickly and dramatically, with the S&P 500 jumping about 27%. Some beaten-down stocks, such as Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp, made gains of that magnitude in a single day's trading.
This climate spells heartburn for short sellers. When a lot of investors suddenly want to buy a stock, brokers can require short sellers to return those borrowed shares. To "cover" their positions, short sellers need to buy shares in the market -- perhaps at higher prices than those at which they originally sold them, triggering a loss.
What's worse, demand from a multitude of short sellers trying to cover their positions at the same time can send prices even higher -- that's known as a short squeeze.
"This is a very high-risk environment to be short," said Doug Noland, a senior portfolio manager on Federated Investors' $1.3 billion Federated Prudent Bear Fund. "Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."
The dramatic recent rallies in the broader market and in some specific sectors have battered short sellers who bet against company stocks and index-based ETFs.
Take recent action in SPDR Financial Select, an ETF that tracks financial companies -- and was the fourth-most-shorted stock on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of March. Bad news for these shorts: The ETF has rallied 72% since the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low March 6.
SPDR S&P 500, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, was the second-most-shorted stock on the NYSE. It's vaulted 25% since March 6.
Meanwhile, securities regulators are debating ways to rein in the impact of some forms of short selling.
Under pressure from lawmakers and from banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering five approaches to reinstating the uptick rule, which restricts the short selling of stocks that are in decline.
Regulators can crack down even more heavily on short selling when certain sectors are getting pummeled. Last year the SEC placed a temporary restriction on short selling in nearly 800 financial institutions' shares.
Bear tracks
In this dicey environment, retail investors have to keep a close eye on signs that a bear market is about to turn bullish.
One signpost is a jump in the Vix to levels exceeding 80%.
The index, which reflects expectations for future volatility in S&P 500 stocks, rose to about 81% on Nov. 20. Over roughly the next seven weeks, the S&P 500 gained 24%.
A steep jump in gold prices and Treasury bonds, two asset classes that are traditionally bid up when investors are feeling particularly pessimistic about stocks, can also flag a coming rebound in stocks.
Two weeks after gold prices shot past $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20, the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low of 666.
Low Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices climb, can also signal stocks are readying for a rebound -- though the reversal can take time.
Starting in mid-September, in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse and the bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors were so hungry for safe, liquid government debt that they were willing to do without any interest payments at all on the shortest-term Treasurys.
Yields on 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills, which move inversely to prices, neared 0% as investors gave up on returns and tried to protect capital.
"That's not a normal market when that starts to happen; that's extreme fear," said Direxion's Brigandi.
The S&P 500 hit new lows after 1-month T-bill yields skirted 0% in September. But by December it was rallying, a bad turn for shorts.
Sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks or sectors can spell trouble for short sellers everywhere, Prudent Bear's Noland said. "We don't like to see stocks with big short positions outperforming the market," Noland said.
Citigroup, the most shorted stock on the NYSE, has tripled to just over $3 a share since March 6.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares jumped 23% after the retailer posted a smaller-than-expected profit decline. Investors had sold about 12% of its shares short, a relatively high proportion.
And in October, the German automobile manufacturer Volkswagen AG briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalization after hedge funds shorting the stock -- caught by surprise when Porsche Automobil Holding revealed a larger stake in the company -- made a forced grab for shares to cover their short positions.
Intense bidding for the few shares owned by the public quadrupled the value of VW shares in just two days.
The New York Stocks Exchange maintains a list of the most shorted stocks on its Web site.
In any market, professional short sellers say it's easy to get burned by focusing on a company's fundamentals and ignoring sentiment among investors.
That was a lesson many short sellers learned the hard way in the late 1990s, as stocks in start-up technology companies skyrocketed along with a general equity-market euphoria, even if the companies had booked no profits and faced questionable prospects. Many later went bust, but only after handing heavy losses to short sellers along the way.
"All companies, even companies that are total frauds, are susceptible to emotional responses to overall market action," said Manuel Asensio, managing member of Mill Rock Investment Advisors, a hedge-fund manager that engages in short selling and other strategies.
Source
Selling stocks short, which worked well as the market plunged to its bear-market lows, came back to bite practitioners as the broad market staged a swift, double-digit rally over the last month.
A watchful eye on contrarian indicators, heavily shorted stocks and safe-haven investment flows -- plus an ear for market sentiment -- can help investors determine when it's time to get out of, or back into, a short-selling strategy.
"You want to look for extremes," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds, which runs $5 billion in exchange-traded and mutual funds, including leveraged short funds such as Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares.
That largely means watching the metrics that signal investor fears have gone too far, such as highs in the CBOE Volatility Index, called the Vix, and gold prices, as well as lows in Treasury-bond yields and investor-sentiment surveys. When investors are hunkering down in cash, Treasurys and gold, the thinking goes, stocks may have sold off too much and are ready to rally.
"A huge amount of money sitting on the sidelines and in safe havens creates a recipe for a snapback," Brigandi said.
Retail investors can engage in short sales -- placing bets that an individual stock or a broader sector will fall -- by borrowing stock through a margin account or purchasing exchange-traded funds or mutual funds that engage in short trades. E-Trade Financial Corp and Scottrade, for instance, allow investors to sell stock short with as little as $2,000 in a margin account.
Prescription for heartburn
To execute a short sale, investors borrow stock, then sell it. If the shares fall, they can buy them back at a lower price, return the securities to the lender and pocket the difference as profit.
It was an attractive strategy as U.S. stocks were moving toward 12-year lows earlier this year. But in the past month, they rebounded quickly and dramatically, with the S&P 500 jumping about 27%. Some beaten-down stocks, such as Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corp, made gains of that magnitude in a single day's trading.
This climate spells heartburn for short sellers. When a lot of investors suddenly want to buy a stock, brokers can require short sellers to return those borrowed shares. To "cover" their positions, short sellers need to buy shares in the market -- perhaps at higher prices than those at which they originally sold them, triggering a loss.
What's worse, demand from a multitude of short sellers trying to cover their positions at the same time can send prices even higher -- that's known as a short squeeze.
"This is a very high-risk environment to be short," said Doug Noland, a senior portfolio manager on Federated Investors' $1.3 billion Federated Prudent Bear Fund. "Short squeezes can be dramatic, and a lot of money can be lost."
The dramatic recent rallies in the broader market and in some specific sectors have battered short sellers who bet against company stocks and index-based ETFs.
Take recent action in SPDR Financial Select, an ETF that tracks financial companies -- and was the fourth-most-shorted stock on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of March. Bad news for these shorts: The ETF has rallied 72% since the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low March 6.
SPDR S&P 500, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, was the second-most-shorted stock on the NYSE. It's vaulted 25% since March 6.
Meanwhile, securities regulators are debating ways to rein in the impact of some forms of short selling.
Under pressure from lawmakers and from banks, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering five approaches to reinstating the uptick rule, which restricts the short selling of stocks that are in decline.
Regulators can crack down even more heavily on short selling when certain sectors are getting pummeled. Last year the SEC placed a temporary restriction on short selling in nearly 800 financial institutions' shares.
Bear tracks
In this dicey environment, retail investors have to keep a close eye on signs that a bear market is about to turn bullish.
One signpost is a jump in the Vix to levels exceeding 80%.
The index, which reflects expectations for future volatility in S&P 500 stocks, rose to about 81% on Nov. 20. Over roughly the next seven weeks, the S&P 500 gained 24%.
A steep jump in gold prices and Treasury bonds, two asset classes that are traditionally bid up when investors are feeling particularly pessimistic about stocks, can also flag a coming rebound in stocks.
Two weeks after gold prices shot past $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 20, the S&P 500 hit its bear-market intraday low of 666.
Low Treasury yields, which fall as bond prices climb, can also signal stocks are readying for a rebound -- though the reversal can take time.
Starting in mid-September, in the wake of the Lehman Bros collapse and the bailouts of American International Group, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors were so hungry for safe, liquid government debt that they were willing to do without any interest payments at all on the shortest-term Treasurys.
Yields on 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills, which move inversely to prices, neared 0% as investors gave up on returns and tried to protect capital.
"That's not a normal market when that starts to happen; that's extreme fear," said Direxion's Brigandi.
The S&P 500 hit new lows after 1-month T-bill yields skirted 0% in September. But by December it was rallying, a bad turn for shorts.
Sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks or sectors can spell trouble for short sellers everywhere, Prudent Bear's Noland said. "We don't like to see stocks with big short positions outperforming the market," Noland said.
Citigroup, the most shorted stock on the NYSE, has tripled to just over $3 a share since March 6.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares jumped 23% after the retailer posted a smaller-than-expected profit decline. Investors had sold about 12% of its shares short, a relatively high proportion.
And in October, the German automobile manufacturer Volkswagen AG briefly became the world's largest company by market capitalization after hedge funds shorting the stock -- caught by surprise when Porsche Automobil Holding revealed a larger stake in the company -- made a forced grab for shares to cover their short positions.
Intense bidding for the few shares owned by the public quadrupled the value of VW shares in just two days.
The New York Stocks Exchange maintains a list of the most shorted stocks on its Web site.
In any market, professional short sellers say it's easy to get burned by focusing on a company's fundamentals and ignoring sentiment among investors.
That was a lesson many short sellers learned the hard way in the late 1990s, as stocks in start-up technology companies skyrocketed along with a general equity-market euphoria, even if the companies had booked no profits and faced questionable prospects. Many later went bust, but only after handing heavy losses to short sellers along the way.
"All companies, even companies that are total frauds, are susceptible to emotional responses to overall market action," said Manuel Asensio, managing member of Mill Rock Investment Advisors, a hedge-fund manager that engages in short selling and other strategies.
Source
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The recent winning streak for two beaten-down casino stocks was a classic case of what some traders suspect happened on a grander scale during the 28% rally for the Standard & Poor's 500: a short squeeze.
Shares of Strip giants MGM Mirage and Las Vegas Sands, owner of the Venetian casino, are both more than 90% from their peaks in 2008. During recent boom times, both loaded up with debt to build glistening developments that helped Vegas transform from seedy "Sin City" to a desert Monte Carlo. Now, Vegas's premium-price reputation makes it anathema to recession-struck tourists, and the casinos' debt loads are threatening to bust the companies.
This week, money manager Colony Capital LLC has broken off talks about an investment with MGM Mirage. The casino operator must come up with alternative financing for its $13.5 billion in debt, and to fund payments on its City Center project, an $8.6 billion development on the Las Vegas Strip.
Gambling, like liquor and cigarettes, was once thought to grow in popularity when times got tough. But gambling is no longer the only game in town. Data from the Nevada Gaming Commission shows that non-gaming revenue - think breakfast buffets and top-dollar suites - exceeded gaming revenue on the Strip in 2007.
Betting on red for Vegas is almost as dangerous as betting it will be in the black, however. Indeed, action in Sands and MGM Mirage has come to resemble a high-stakes game of "All-In" poker. Las Vegas Sands has more than tripled in value (to $4.44) and MGM more than doubled (to $5.30) from their March lows, when investors had effectively priced in a bust. Some short-sellers likely lost their shirts during those rallies.
Roughly 23% of Las Vegas Sands' float and 30% of MGM's were recently on loan to short sellers who borrowed it in the hopes of a fall, according to shortsqueeze.com. When an event - such as MGM's tentative deal with Colony Capital on April 1, when it closed at $2.63 - causes a stock with a large portion on loan to tick up, it can cause a stampede of buyers. That's because short-sellers lose money every time the stock ticks a little higher. Every tick prompts another short-seller to cut their loss by buying the stock. And every purchase of the stock causes another tick higher.
Outstanding short positions in New York Stock Exchange issues rose by 11% in the first half of March, suggesting that short-sellers buying back stock played some role in the recent rally beyond the action in the casinos. That's one reason some investors expect another dip for the market once the short covering is done.
One reason people may not be flocking to Vegas: they can have the same thrills and spills just watching their stock investments.
Source
Shares of Strip giants MGM Mirage and Las Vegas Sands, owner of the Venetian casino, are both more than 90% from their peaks in 2008. During recent boom times, both loaded up with debt to build glistening developments that helped Vegas transform from seedy "Sin City" to a desert Monte Carlo. Now, Vegas's premium-price reputation makes it anathema to recession-struck tourists, and the casinos' debt loads are threatening to bust the companies.
This week, money manager Colony Capital LLC has broken off talks about an investment with MGM Mirage. The casino operator must come up with alternative financing for its $13.5 billion in debt, and to fund payments on its City Center project, an $8.6 billion development on the Las Vegas Strip.
Gambling, like liquor and cigarettes, was once thought to grow in popularity when times got tough. But gambling is no longer the only game in town. Data from the Nevada Gaming Commission shows that non-gaming revenue - think breakfast buffets and top-dollar suites - exceeded gaming revenue on the Strip in 2007.
Betting on red for Vegas is almost as dangerous as betting it will be in the black, however. Indeed, action in Sands and MGM Mirage has come to resemble a high-stakes game of "All-In" poker. Las Vegas Sands has more than tripled in value (to $4.44) and MGM more than doubled (to $5.30) from their March lows, when investors had effectively priced in a bust. Some short-sellers likely lost their shirts during those rallies.
Roughly 23% of Las Vegas Sands' float and 30% of MGM's were recently on loan to short sellers who borrowed it in the hopes of a fall, according to shortsqueeze.com. When an event - such as MGM's tentative deal with Colony Capital on April 1, when it closed at $2.63 - causes a stock with a large portion on loan to tick up, it can cause a stampede of buyers. That's because short-sellers lose money every time the stock ticks a little higher. Every tick prompts another short-seller to cut their loss by buying the stock. And every purchase of the stock causes another tick higher.
Outstanding short positions in New York Stock Exchange issues rose by 11% in the first half of March, suggesting that short-sellers buying back stock played some role in the recent rally beyond the action in the casinos. That's one reason some investors expect another dip for the market once the short covering is done.
One reason people may not be flocking to Vegas: they can have the same thrills and spills just watching their stock investments.
Source
Friday, April 10, 2009
MGM Mirage, Colony Capital Loan Discussions Said to Be On Hold
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- MGM Mirage’s talks to get a $750 million secured loan from Colony Capital LLC have been put on hold as the casino company focuses on negotiations with banks, two people with knowledge of the discussions said.
Talks with Colony, the Los Angeles-based private equity firm, may restart and a loan is still possible, said the people, who declined to be named because negotiations are private. Colony and Australia’s Crown Ltd. were considering a debt investment in Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage, people familiar with the talks said this week.
MGM Mirage, controlled by 91-year-old Kirk Kerkorian, has until May 15 to offer a plan to restructure debt totaling more than $12 billion. The company also has been funding construction of the multibillion-dollar CityCenter development on the Las Vegas Strip alone after partner Dubai World sued and asked to be relieved of financing obligations.
The next CityCenter payment is due on April 13. Bank waivers allowing MGM Mirage to cover state-owned Dubai World’s half also expire on that day.
Spokespeople for MGM Mirage and Colony Capital declined to comment to Bloomberg News.
Geoff Kleeman, a spokesman for Melbourne-based Crown, didn’t return voice-mail messages left by Bloomberg on his office and cell phone outside of business hours.
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Colony had ended talks with MGM Mirage. Alan Feldman, a spokesman for MGM Mirage, said the company continues to hold talks with investors and declined to identify them, the newspaper said.
MGM rose 55 cents, or 12 percent, to $5.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than doubled this month.
Source
Talks with Colony, the Los Angeles-based private equity firm, may restart and a loan is still possible, said the people, who declined to be named because negotiations are private. Colony and Australia’s Crown Ltd. were considering a debt investment in Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage, people familiar with the talks said this week.
MGM Mirage, controlled by 91-year-old Kirk Kerkorian, has until May 15 to offer a plan to restructure debt totaling more than $12 billion. The company also has been funding construction of the multibillion-dollar CityCenter development on the Las Vegas Strip alone after partner Dubai World sued and asked to be relieved of financing obligations.
The next CityCenter payment is due on April 13. Bank waivers allowing MGM Mirage to cover state-owned Dubai World’s half also expire on that day.
Spokespeople for MGM Mirage and Colony Capital declined to comment to Bloomberg News.
Geoff Kleeman, a spokesman for Melbourne-based Crown, didn’t return voice-mail messages left by Bloomberg on his office and cell phone outside of business hours.
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Colony had ended talks with MGM Mirage. Alan Feldman, a spokesman for MGM Mirage, said the company continues to hold talks with investors and declined to identify them, the newspaper said.
MGM rose 55 cents, or 12 percent, to $5.30 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have more than doubled this month.
Source
Shares close 2.5% up
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 2.5 per cent higher on Thursday, mirroring gains in regional markets as investors cheered Japan's plans for a new stimulus package, dealers said.
The main Straits Times Index rose 44.55 points to 1,828.51. Volume was 1.64 billion shares worth $1.17 billion (US$780 million) and there were 364 rising issues, 125 losers and 709 issues even.
Japan's plans for a fresh stimulus package worth over US$150 billion are seen as good news with Singapore likely to gain in terms of improved exports should the world's second biggest economy turn around, dealers said.
'If one believes in economic recovery, the Singapore market should be a good bet given it is among the cheapest in the region and has such an open economy,' a trader at a local brokerage said.
Among the banks, DBS added 41 cents to $8.91, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp put on 16 cents to $5.46 and United Overseas Bank was 38 cents higher at $10.50.
Singapore Airlines climbed 48 cents to $11.46 and Singapore Telecommunications was three cents up at $2.55.
The main Straits Times Index rose 44.55 points to 1,828.51. Volume was 1.64 billion shares worth $1.17 billion (US$780 million) and there were 364 rising issues, 125 losers and 709 issues even.
Japan's plans for a fresh stimulus package worth over US$150 billion are seen as good news with Singapore likely to gain in terms of improved exports should the world's second biggest economy turn around, dealers said.
'If one believes in economic recovery, the Singapore market should be a good bet given it is among the cheapest in the region and has such an open economy,' a trader at a local brokerage said.
Among the banks, DBS added 41 cents to $8.91, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp put on 16 cents to $5.46 and United Overseas Bank was 38 cents higher at $10.50.
Singapore Airlines climbed 48 cents to $11.46 and Singapore Telecommunications was three cents up at $2.55.
中冶集团承建的新加坡环球影城混凝土主体结构封顶
3月31日，中国冶金科工集团公司中国京冶承建的新加坡圣淘沙环球影城项目地下主体结构封顶仪式在新建成的顶板上举行。圣淘沙岛发展公司(SDC)、项目业主(RWS)、建筑咨询公司（DPA）、结构咨询公司（MCS）、机电咨询公司（BECA）的代表与数百名参与设计、施工和管理的工程技术人员和工人一起参加了封顶仪式。
该项目地下室顶板面积超过10个标准足球场，水平投影面积约7.6万平方米，模板面积近10万平方米，混凝土方量6万立方米，总数超过1万辆泵车混凝土量，高峰期每天要下200辆混凝土泵车的灰量，钢筋15，000吨，该顶板于2008年8月开始施工。在业主单位、设计单位、监理单位及其他相关部门的共同努力下，现场施工人员克服了边设计边施工等种种困难，顶高温、战酷暑，昼夜奋战，历时8个月完成了地下主体结构的封顶，按期实现项目计划施工进度中的一个重要里程碑。
地下主体结构（E-deck）的封顶，标志着MC-04项目由地下结构施工阶段转为建筑和机电施工为主的阶段，MCC环球影城项目部全体人员有信心在业主及管理咨询公司的协助下确保工程整体施工计划的如期完成。新加坡环球影城项目竣工后将成为世界第6座环球影城主题公园，计划在2010年初开业，届时将成为新加坡一个新的旅游景点。作为中冶集团目前所承接的规模最大的海外民用项目，新加坡环球影城项目的顺利实施将会奠定中冶集团在新加坡乃至整个东南亚地区建筑市场中的领先地位。
免责声明：本文仅代表作者个人观点，与凤凰网无关。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本站证实，对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性本站不作任何保证或承诺，请读者仅作参考，并请自行核实相关内容。
Source
该项目地下室顶板面积超过10个标准足球场，水平投影面积约7.6万平方米，模板面积近10万平方米，混凝土方量6万立方米，总数超过1万辆泵车混凝土量，高峰期每天要下200辆混凝土泵车的灰量，钢筋15，000吨，该顶板于2008年8月开始施工。在业主单位、设计单位、监理单位及其他相关部门的共同努力下，现场施工人员克服了边设计边施工等种种困难，顶高温、战酷暑，昼夜奋战，历时8个月完成了地下主体结构的封顶，按期实现项目计划施工进度中的一个重要里程碑。
地下主体结构（E-deck）的封顶，标志着MC-04项目由地下结构施工阶段转为建筑和机电施工为主的阶段，MCC环球影城项目部全体人员有信心在业主及管理咨询公司的协助下确保工程整体施工计划的如期完成。新加坡环球影城项目竣工后将成为世界第6座环球影城主题公园，计划在2010年初开业，届时将成为新加坡一个新的旅游景点。作为中冶集团目前所承接的规模最大的海外民用项目，新加坡环球影城项目的顺利实施将会奠定中冶集团在新加坡乃至整个东南亚地区建筑市场中的领先地位。
免责声明：本文仅代表作者个人观点，与凤凰网无关。其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经本站证实，对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性本站不作任何保证或承诺，请读者仅作参考，并请自行核实相关内容。
Source
拥45亿现金兼丽星邮轮转盈 2投资银行看好名胜世界
（吉隆坡7日讯）马银投资银行在投资研究报告说，名胜世界有限公司（RESORTS，4715，主板贸易服务组）持股19.6％的长期投资－丽星邮轮（Star Cruises）2008年下半年核心净利480万美元，较去年同期大幅改善，是由于每季净收益率较高以及分担较低的NCLC集团亏损。
丽星邮轮浮现希望，它在2008年净亏损7950万美元，较2007年的2亿零80万美元有显著改善。除去特别项目（主要是耗蚀亏损），2008年核心净亏损1亿2620万美元也是低过2007年核心净亏损1亿5080万美元。
丽星邮轮在2008年下半年转亏为盈录得核心净利480万美元，相对2008年上半年核心净亏损1亿3090万美元；是由于每季净收益率较高，分担较低的NCLC集团亏损以及可能拨回呆账拨备金。
应留意它分担NCLC集团亏损减至1710万美元，较去年同期减低80％，然而该集团的耗蚀亏损高达1亿2880万美元。
筹集现金的风险减低，该份报告说，虽然亏损已收窄，但是丽星邮轮的北美洲竞争者，皇家加勒比海（Royal Caribbean）以及嘉年华机构（Carnival Corporation）已预警说，虽然美国经济疲软，但是净收益率今年不会大幅下跌至低双位数。加上预测每季较疲软的2009年上半年，马银投资银行置疑丽星邮轮将继续收窄亏损。
然而，欣慰的是NCLC集团已获得借贷者同意，将2009年以及2010年届期的负债再融资，提示了没有立即发售附加股或是筹集现金的风险，这最终须由名胜世界承担。与去年同期比较，丽星邮轮集团的净负债率已下跌6.5个百分点至21.7％。
随着将持股减至19.6％后已不须结合丽星邮轮的业绩，后者的业绩对名胜世界盈利没有影响，现金结存目前很安全。
马银投资银行保持名胜世界的<买入>评级，2009年底目标价2.86令吉是基于现金流量拆现合理估值3.18令吉折扣10％。
名胜世界可能须注入现金给丽星邮轮的忧虑已消除，因此提示有上升空间。截至2008年底，它有净现金结存45亿令吉，相等于每股77仙。
名胜世界没有宣布派发股息。
此外，名胜世界有限公司仍然是联昌国际投资研究行首选的博彩业股，现时股价处在2.27令吉并保持<超越大市>评级不变，虽然调低目标价至2.95令吉，是经修订盈利后的标准经营程序（SOP）估值折扣20％。
联昌国际投资研究行在短笺中说：“股价推动力仍然是强劲的赌场营业，巨额现金结存超过40亿令吉，高股息以及潜在的本区域合并收购计划。”
“相对于云顶有限公司（GENTING，3182，主板贸易服务组），我们选择名胜世界是基于它纯粹参与仍然具回弹潜能的国内赌场业务。在估值方面，名胜世界的远期本益比低于9倍，较它的15年平均数低超过一半，以及是云顶的远期本益比折扣21％。
“至于价格对账面值比率，这只股也是以历年低点进行交易。它的企业继续经营价值/付息税前收益额也写下新低点。”
但是，由于经济情况恶化以及今年内可能撤销澳门的签证限制，联昌国际投资研究行谨慎估计名胜世界的豪赌客收益大幅下跌10％，而不是较早前估计下跌3％。
该投资研究行的修订预估，也假定大马观光客来源改变；因为在新加坡的2个综合休闲胜地明年开始营业后，来自新加坡以及新山的观光客可能减少。
“因此，名胜世界的2009至2011财政年盈利预估调低4至6％。现有盈利预估反映了赌场盈利减少2至1.5％，而不是较早前预估增长2至5％。但是2009至2011财政年每股派息预估保持不变。”
联昌国际投资研究行说，由于有巨额的45亿令吉现金结存，名胜世界可能主导该集团的合并收购计划。除去名胜世界的每股77仙现金接存后，远期本益比5至6倍，是与亚洲金融危机时期的估值一致。
“名胜世界的每股现金结存，占了现有股价超过三份之一。”
Source
丽星邮轮浮现希望，它在2008年净亏损7950万美元，较2007年的2亿零80万美元有显著改善。除去特别项目（主要是耗蚀亏损），2008年核心净亏损1亿2620万美元也是低过2007年核心净亏损1亿5080万美元。
丽星邮轮在2008年下半年转亏为盈录得核心净利480万美元，相对2008年上半年核心净亏损1亿3090万美元；是由于每季净收益率较高，分担较低的NCLC集团亏损以及可能拨回呆账拨备金。
应留意它分担NCLC集团亏损减至1710万美元，较去年同期减低80％，然而该集团的耗蚀亏损高达1亿2880万美元。
筹集现金的风险减低，该份报告说，虽然亏损已收窄，但是丽星邮轮的北美洲竞争者，皇家加勒比海（Royal Caribbean）以及嘉年华机构（Carnival Corporation）已预警说，虽然美国经济疲软，但是净收益率今年不会大幅下跌至低双位数。加上预测每季较疲软的2009年上半年，马银投资银行置疑丽星邮轮将继续收窄亏损。
然而，欣慰的是NCLC集团已获得借贷者同意，将2009年以及2010年届期的负债再融资，提示了没有立即发售附加股或是筹集现金的风险，这最终须由名胜世界承担。与去年同期比较，丽星邮轮集团的净负债率已下跌6.5个百分点至21.7％。
随着将持股减至19.6％后已不须结合丽星邮轮的业绩，后者的业绩对名胜世界盈利没有影响，现金结存目前很安全。
马银投资银行保持名胜世界的<买入>评级，2009年底目标价2.86令吉是基于现金流量拆现合理估值3.18令吉折扣10％。
名胜世界可能须注入现金给丽星邮轮的忧虑已消除，因此提示有上升空间。截至2008年底，它有净现金结存45亿令吉，相等于每股77仙。
名胜世界没有宣布派发股息。
此外，名胜世界有限公司仍然是联昌国际投资研究行首选的博彩业股，现时股价处在2.27令吉并保持<超越大市>评级不变，虽然调低目标价至2.95令吉，是经修订盈利后的标准经营程序（SOP）估值折扣20％。
联昌国际投资研究行在短笺中说：“股价推动力仍然是强劲的赌场营业，巨额现金结存超过40亿令吉，高股息以及潜在的本区域合并收购计划。”
“相对于云顶有限公司（GENTING，3182，主板贸易服务组），我们选择名胜世界是基于它纯粹参与仍然具回弹潜能的国内赌场业务。在估值方面，名胜世界的远期本益比低于9倍，较它的15年平均数低超过一半，以及是云顶的远期本益比折扣21％。
“至于价格对账面值比率，这只股也是以历年低点进行交易。它的企业继续经营价值/付息税前收益额也写下新低点。”
但是，由于经济情况恶化以及今年内可能撤销澳门的签证限制，联昌国际投资研究行谨慎估计名胜世界的豪赌客收益大幅下跌10％，而不是较早前估计下跌3％。
该投资研究行的修订预估，也假定大马观光客来源改变；因为在新加坡的2个综合休闲胜地明年开始营业后，来自新加坡以及新山的观光客可能减少。
“因此，名胜世界的2009至2011财政年盈利预估调低4至6％。现有盈利预估反映了赌场盈利减少2至1.5％，而不是较早前预估增长2至5％。但是2009至2011财政年每股派息预估保持不变。”
联昌国际投资研究行说，由于有巨额的45亿令吉现金结存，名胜世界可能主导该集团的合并收购计划。除去名胜世界的每股77仙现金接存后，远期本益比5至6倍，是与亚洲金融危机时期的估值一致。
“名胜世界的每股现金结存，占了现有股价超过三份之一。”
Source
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Shares close 2.47% lower
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares slid 2.47 per cent on Tuesday as investors booked some profits after recent gains, dealers said.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 45.59 points lower at 1,802.39 on volume of 1.22 billion shares worth $1.08 billion (US$713 million).
Losers outnumbered gainers 297 to 141, with 745 issues unchanged.
Dealers said the pullback after five days of gains would not significantly derail the surge.
'Selling volumes are fairly light, so the correction looks healthy in nature and shouldn't be too dramatic,' said Gabriel Gan, senior vice president of AmFraser Securities.
Another dealer said pockets of positive economic data out of China and the United States should help galvanise the market.
'We believe that bears will have limited ammunition as economic data out of China and the US continues to improve,' said Yeo Kee Yan, a strategist at DBS Vickers Securities.
Banking shares closed down. DBS fell 35 cents to $8.83, United Overseas Bank slipped 46 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp eased nine cents to $5.24.
Among property shares, CapitaLand shed 24 cents to $2.57, City Developments retreated 36 cents to $5.82 and Keppel Land closed 13 cents lower at $1.64.
Singapore Telecommunications gained seven cents to $2.53 while Singapore Airlines was unchanged at $11.00.
Oil rig maker Keppel Corp dropped 32 cents to $5.46 and agribusiness firm Wilmar International eased three cents to $3.32.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) closed 45.59 points lower at 1,802.39 on volume of 1.22 billion shares worth $1.08 billion (US$713 million).
Losers outnumbered gainers 297 to 141, with 745 issues unchanged.
Dealers said the pullback after five days of gains would not significantly derail the surge.
'Selling volumes are fairly light, so the correction looks healthy in nature and shouldn't be too dramatic,' said Gabriel Gan, senior vice president of AmFraser Securities.
Another dealer said pockets of positive economic data out of China and the United States should help galvanise the market.
'We believe that bears will have limited ammunition as economic data out of China and the US continues to improve,' said Yeo Kee Yan, a strategist at DBS Vickers Securities.
Banking shares closed down. DBS fell 35 cents to $8.83, United Overseas Bank slipped 46 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp eased nine cents to $5.24.
Among property shares, CapitaLand shed 24 cents to $2.57, City Developments retreated 36 cents to $5.82 and Keppel Land closed 13 cents lower at $1.64.
Singapore Telecommunications gained seven cents to $2.53 while Singapore Airlines was unchanged at $11.00.
Oil rig maker Keppel Corp dropped 32 cents to $5.46 and agribusiness firm Wilmar International eased three cents to $3.32.
亚太股市周二涨跌互见
亚太股市周二涨跌互见。由于投资者都在等待美国及部分亚太公司发布第一季度业绩情况，市场交投清淡，股指一直在前日收盘点位附近徘徊。
东京股市收盘小幅走低，前夜美国股市下跌促使投资者对新日本制铁(Nippon Steel)等近期上涨的个股进行获利回吐，市场交投淡静。日经指数跌25.08点，至8832.85点，跌幅0.3%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数涨1.63点，至832.60点，涨幅0.2%。六月日经指数期货收盘跌30点，至8860点，跌幅0.3%。
香港股市收盘走低，主要因投资者在恒生指数前三个交易日累计上涨11%后进行获利了结。但是，在中资金融类股走高的带动下，股指的跌幅在尾盘收窄。分析师预计，恒生指数将追随中国大陆股市近期涨势而重拾升势，并将在未来几个交易日内上探15,800点。中国大陆股市周二收于七个月高点。恒生指数周二收盘跌69.07点，至14,928.97点，跌幅0.5%；股指在前市触及盘中低点14,743.71点。今年迄今为止，恒生指数已累计上涨3.8%。分析师称，成交额为509.3亿港元，远低于周一的621.9亿港元，这说明抛盘压力并不强。
中国股市创下逾七个月高点，金属价格上涨以及对于资源需求上升的期望带动有色金属类股走高。基准上证综合指数收盘涨0.8%，至2439.18点，为去年8月20日收于2523.28点以来的最高水平。深证综合指数涨0.8%，至2439.18点。上海证交所成交额降至人民币1,184.4亿元（合173.3亿美元），上周五为人民币1,596.3亿元。中国金融市场周一因公共假日休市。澳大利亚股市收盘走低，结束连续三个交易日涨势，未受澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)减息、
澳大利亚电信(Telstra)在政府宣布国家宽频计划后强劲上扬的影响。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌50.3点，至3706.3点，跌幅1.3%，给位于该水平的技术支撑位带来压力。该指数盘中一度触及两日低位3704.5点。澳大利亚央行最新利率决定与市场普遍预期相符，将隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点，至49年低位3.00%。
新加坡股市经历了交易员们所谓的“良性回调”，最终收盘走低，因投资者决定对过去几周的涨势进行部分获利回吐。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌45.59点，至1802.39点，跌幅2.5%。大盘有297只股票下跌，141只股票上涨。市场成交量总计12亿股，低于周一的成交量20亿股。
东京股市收盘小幅走低，前夜美国股市下跌促使投资者对新日本制铁(Nippon Steel)等近期上涨的个股进行获利回吐，市场交投淡静。日经指数跌25.08点，至8832.85点，跌幅0.3%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票在内的东证指数涨1.63点，至832.60点，涨幅0.2%。六月日经指数期货收盘跌30点，至8860点，跌幅0.3%。
香港股市收盘走低，主要因投资者在恒生指数前三个交易日累计上涨11%后进行获利了结。但是，在中资金融类股走高的带动下，股指的跌幅在尾盘收窄。分析师预计，恒生指数将追随中国大陆股市近期涨势而重拾升势，并将在未来几个交易日内上探15,800点。中国大陆股市周二收于七个月高点。恒生指数周二收盘跌69.07点，至14,928.97点，跌幅0.5%；股指在前市触及盘中低点14,743.71点。今年迄今为止，恒生指数已累计上涨3.8%。分析师称，成交额为509.3亿港元，远低于周一的621.9亿港元，这说明抛盘压力并不强。
中国股市创下逾七个月高点，金属价格上涨以及对于资源需求上升的期望带动有色金属类股走高。基准上证综合指数收盘涨0.8%，至2439.18点，为去年8月20日收于2523.28点以来的最高水平。深证综合指数涨0.8%，至2439.18点。上海证交所成交额降至人民币1,184.4亿元（合173.3亿美元），上周五为人民币1,596.3亿元。中国金融市场周一因公共假日休市。澳大利亚股市收盘走低，结束连续三个交易日涨势，未受澳大利亚央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)减息、
澳大利亚电信(Telstra)在政府宣布国家宽频计划后强劲上扬的影响。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘跌50.3点，至3706.3点，跌幅1.3%，给位于该水平的技术支撑位带来压力。该指数盘中一度触及两日低位3704.5点。澳大利亚央行最新利率决定与市场普遍预期相符，将隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点，至49年低位3.00%。
新加坡股市经历了交易员们所谓的“良性回调”，最终收盘走低，因投资者决定对过去几周的涨势进行部分获利回吐。新加坡海峡时报指数收盘下跌45.59点，至1802.39点，跌幅2.5%。大盘有297只股票下跌，141只股票上涨。市场成交量总计12亿股，低于周一的成交量20亿股。
Malaysia's CIMB to close 60 branches-report
KUALA LUMPUR, April 6 (Reuters) - Malaysia's second largest lender CIMB Bank will close nearly 60 surplus branches this year to save up to 60 million ringgit ($16.77 million) annually, local daily The Malaysian Reserve reported on Monday.
The bank has identified the 60 banks to be closed in August, the report quoted its head of consumer sales and distribution, Sulaiman Mohd Tahir as saying.
"CIMB can save in the region of 50 million to 60 million ringgit from the closing of the branches from next year onwards. And when we close the branches, we will redeploy the people.
"The group may also see the possibility of new revenue to be generated by redeploying people to other areas which has value creation in terms of new business," he said.
The network rationalisation was prompted by the merger between CIMB and Southern Bank in 2006.
Source
The bank has identified the 60 banks to be closed in August, the report quoted its head of consumer sales and distribution, Sulaiman Mohd Tahir as saying.
"CIMB can save in the region of 50 million to 60 million ringgit from the closing of the branches from next year onwards. And when we close the branches, we will redeploy the people.
"The group may also see the possibility of new revenue to be generated by redeploying people to other areas which has value creation in terms of new business," he said.
The network rationalisation was prompted by the merger between CIMB and Southern Bank in 2006.
Source
股海明灯: 降低注资丽星邮轮疑虑 名胜世界扭转劣势
身为蓝筹股之一的名胜世界（Resorts，4715，主板贸易服务股）股价最近波动激烈，在2月份时面对强大卖压，股价在3月11日时猛挫至1.90令吉的最低价水平。
这主要是受到它在2月底公布亏损的业绩所入拖累，在截至2008年12月31日的第四季内，名胜世界受到在丽星邮轮投资价值折损的拖累，蒙受高达3亿8784万3000令吉的净亏损，前期的净利为3亿4409万4000令吉。
由于名胜世界之前将丽星邮轮的投资损失分类为储备，如今将之纳入其账目内，因此后者的高达7亿8150万令吉的投资折损造成了其庞大的净亏损表现。 所以，在3月份名胜世界的股价表现并不理想，处于低点横摆。
不过，进入4月之后，名胜世界开始扭转劣势。 这除了最近丽星邮轮（Star Cruises）在2008财年净亏损收窄，降低市场置疑名胜世界可能注入现金予前者的忧虑，令到名胜世界股价具有增长潜能的利好因素带动之外。
相信这一轮名胜世界股价反弹与名胜世界近期进场回购股票有关。其实，在3月份股价低迷时，已经进场回购本身公司股票，在这一个月期间回购了将近740万股的名胜世界股票。
以2.19令吉的股价计算，名胜世界目前是处于2008财政年本益比20.39倍的水平交易。
公司回购股票的考量 为何名胜世界会决定进行股票回购？
根据回购股票的最基本的理由，那便是名胜世界管理层认为，名胜世界的股票价格已经被低估。
对于公司管理层而言，回购股票也能够稳定公司的股价，以及支持公司的基本因素。
所以，名胜世界管理层在股价滑跌时大事进场回购股票，那是合理的现象。 此外，回购股票其他的好处包括所派发的股息不必分给那么多股票，所以公司可以派发更高的股息。 还是就是股票数额减少，每股净利也能相应的提升。
另一个强点是，如果股票被当作库存股的，公司也可以选择当作股息派发给现有股东，或者是在股价上涨时在公开市场中卖出。 股东视为积极行动 对于现有股东来说，股票回购受到他们欢迎的，因为这是一个积极的行动，会加强股东的价值。
很多股东也认为，公司一旦进行回购股票，股价将会获得扶持。所以，名胜世界股价最近走势恢复升势，或多或少也受到回购股票的激励。 当然，想要进行回购股票的活动，公司的先决条件便是必须拥有现金，因为条例规定股票回购必须通过公司的保留盈利以及/或股票溢价户口进行。
回购股票必须司通过本身的資金在公开市场进行回购本身的股票。 凡是进行股票回购，上市公司必须通过公开市场进行。不过，不可以超过其缴足資本的10%。 此外，条例也规定上市公司进行股票回购的价格，不能超过在进行回购前5个交易日平均加权股价的15%。
还有就是公司在进行股票回购之后，公司必须进行公布有关的回购详情。 所以，投資者可以从交易所的网站中，找到有关名胜世界回购股票的資料。 回购股票乃股本回退 在回购股票之后，上市公司可以选择将股票当作库存股，或是注销，所以回购股票也可以说是股本回退的一种方式。
不过，反映公司管理层除了回购股票之外，便无法投資在适当的业务，以为公司带来额外盈利。这也可能导致公司财务資源减少，并失去未来可能出现的投資机会。
总结 根据大马交易所的最新记录显示，在3月24日之后，名胜世界便不再回购股票，这意味着名胜世界是选择在股价处于2.00令吉以下的水平进行股票回购，这也显示2.00令吉将是名胜世界的强力支持，而投资者在目前市场购兴良好的时候考虑此股，风险应该是相当低的。
Source
这主要是受到它在2月底公布亏损的业绩所入拖累，在截至2008年12月31日的第四季内，名胜世界受到在丽星邮轮投资价值折损的拖累，蒙受高达3亿8784万3000令吉的净亏损，前期的净利为3亿4409万4000令吉。
由于名胜世界之前将丽星邮轮的投资损失分类为储备，如今将之纳入其账目内，因此后者的高达7亿8150万令吉的投资折损造成了其庞大的净亏损表现。 所以，在3月份名胜世界的股价表现并不理想，处于低点横摆。
不过，进入4月之后，名胜世界开始扭转劣势。 这除了最近丽星邮轮（Star Cruises）在2008财年净亏损收窄，降低市场置疑名胜世界可能注入现金予前者的忧虑，令到名胜世界股价具有增长潜能的利好因素带动之外。
相信这一轮名胜世界股价反弹与名胜世界近期进场回购股票有关。其实，在3月份股价低迷时，已经进场回购本身公司股票，在这一个月期间回购了将近740万股的名胜世界股票。
以2.19令吉的股价计算，名胜世界目前是处于2008财政年本益比20.39倍的水平交易。
公司回购股票的考量 为何名胜世界会决定进行股票回购？
根据回购股票的最基本的理由，那便是名胜世界管理层认为，名胜世界的股票价格已经被低估。
对于公司管理层而言，回购股票也能够稳定公司的股价，以及支持公司的基本因素。
所以，名胜世界管理层在股价滑跌时大事进场回购股票，那是合理的现象。 此外，回购股票其他的好处包括所派发的股息不必分给那么多股票，所以公司可以派发更高的股息。 还是就是股票数额减少，每股净利也能相应的提升。
另一个强点是，如果股票被当作库存股的，公司也可以选择当作股息派发给现有股东，或者是在股价上涨时在公开市场中卖出。 股东视为积极行动 对于现有股东来说，股票回购受到他们欢迎的，因为这是一个积极的行动，会加强股东的价值。
很多股东也认为，公司一旦进行回购股票，股价将会获得扶持。所以，名胜世界股价最近走势恢复升势，或多或少也受到回购股票的激励。 当然，想要进行回购股票的活动，公司的先决条件便是必须拥有现金，因为条例规定股票回购必须通过公司的保留盈利以及/或股票溢价户口进行。
回购股票必须司通过本身的資金在公开市场进行回购本身的股票。 凡是进行股票回购，上市公司必须通过公开市场进行。不过，不可以超过其缴足資本的10%。 此外，条例也规定上市公司进行股票回购的价格，不能超过在进行回购前5个交易日平均加权股价的15%。
还有就是公司在进行股票回购之后，公司必须进行公布有关的回购详情。 所以，投資者可以从交易所的网站中，找到有关名胜世界回购股票的資料。 回购股票乃股本回退 在回购股票之后，上市公司可以选择将股票当作库存股，或是注销，所以回购股票也可以说是股本回退的一种方式。
不过，反映公司管理层除了回购股票之外，便无法投資在适当的业务，以为公司带来额外盈利。这也可能导致公司财务資源减少，并失去未来可能出现的投資机会。
总结 根据大马交易所的最新记录显示，在3月24日之后，名胜世界便不再回购股票，这意味着名胜世界是选择在股价处于2.00令吉以下的水平进行股票回购，这也显示2.00令吉将是名胜世界的强力支持，而投资者在目前市场购兴良好的时候考虑此股，风险应该是相当低的。
Source
赌场业未来几年会改善 梦城机构可保优势
（吉隆坡5日讯）梦城机构有限公司（DGATE，0037，主板贸易服务组）经营电子博彩机行业（EGM），制造与销售电子博彩机以及赌场器材。该公司也提供机器专营权配套与技术支援管理，其他业务包括投资在赌场，管理酒店与拥有赌博执照的俱乐部。
该公司在2004年1月在自动报价市场挂牌上市，以及去年1月转至主要交易板。董事经理拿督蔡金城（译音）是它的最大股东持股38.7％，执行董事马芝兰依斯迈则透过Gerak Juara私人有限公司持股18.6％。
梦城机构在1980年代进军博彩行业，获颁发执照分销电子博彩机给国内博彩业经营公司，包括云顶（GENTING，3182，主板贸易服务组）。此后，该公司已开拓更大市场，目前它的电子博彩机销售至本区域多个国家，例如新加坡、澳门、菲律宾、韩国、越南，柬埔寨、印度以及寮国。它的业务模式也逐渐发展，由原有的分销其他公司产品转移至研发与销售高盈利率的专利权产品，例如RGB博彩机。
梦城机构的RGB博彩机（通常是彩色款式）部门基于3个模式分销它的电子博彩机。第1个是直接销售，顾客一次付款购买；这是最简单以及风险最低的模式，梦城机构的盈利不会受到经营者亏盈影响。但是，电子博彩机售价昂贵（每架1万至2万美元）可能是经营者的沉重负担。此外，他们也须负担高昂的维修以及替换成本。
虽然直接销售剔除了信贷风险，但是盈利是一次过以及每年有变动。由于目前全球经济放缓，梦城机构专注于“租赁与拥有”模式。在这模式下，顾客向梦城机构租赁电子博彩机以及在议定期限内按时付款，期满后拥有权即转移给顾客。梦城机构考虑在它营业的其他国家彩用这模式。
最后一个模式是梦城机构将电子博彩机装置在经营者的店铺，以及根据机器专营权配套，与后者分享盈利。梦城机构将负责维修与技术支援，以及缴付一部份营业成本。每个经营者以及每个国家的盈利分享条件不同。
由于梦城机购拥有电子博彩机，它可以重新部署在盈利更高的国家，甚至是不同区域。一个重大进展是该公司与澳门赌场业巨仔旗下的一家联号公司签署机器专营权配套。该联号公司已在澳门两个地点开始营业，以及今年内将陆续设立更多营业地点。
梦城机构也在菲律宾扩充业务，今年1月签署9项新的专营权协议。它的机器专营权配套是最大收益来源，以及在2009年预测占55％营业额。
在机器专营权配套以及直接销售模式下，梦城机构今年将推出更多架专利权产品的RGB博彩机；但是没有反映在收益方面，因为新机器仍然在测试阶段。然而，该公司深信它的产品将会受到亚洲博彩业经营者欢迎。
在欣荣时期，由于现有博彩机深受欢迎，经营者不愿测试新机器。随着全球金融危机后营业放缓，经营者拨出更多空间装置梦城机构的电子博彩机。该公司预测今年销售至少500架专利权博彩机。这方面进展胥视它的研发能力，继续推出新款以及深受欢迎的博彩机。该公司有一支研发队伍，设计与制造新博彩机，迎合亚洲国家顾客的需求。
在这方面，梦城机构的优势可能不及它的国际同侪，例如Aristocrat，WMS工业，以及国际博彩科技（International Game Technology）。这些公司收益每年超过5亿美元，因此有更多研发资金。
梦城机构独资子公司Macrocept在柬埔寨与越南边界的Bavet市镇经营博彩业。该市镇吸引大量游客，政府致力发展该地区以及计划设立一家赌场。梦城机构计划今年次季在该地设立的Chateau De Bavet赌场将有大约200架博彩机，80张赌桌，以及70个酒店客房另加娱乐与饮食中心。该公司预测到了2010年，收益达到200万美元。
由于销售缓慢以及更多经营者减少开支，梦城机构的盈利在2008年下跌。随着该国政府决定控制过度赌博后，该公司在柬埔寨的一些营业据点可能关闭，因此须拨出耗损拨备金。
虽然梦城机构经营的赌场不受影响，但是该公司将博彩机迁移至盈利较高的其他赌场与俱乐部。今年的销售将继续疲软，但是专利权产品的盈利较高，将舒缓影响。
梦城机构致力扩充至其他国家，但是大约50％收益是来自柬埔寨，因此须面对该国政局以及外汇风险。
它的2009财年预测本益比2.9倍，与国际同侪比较有大幅折扣；估值也可能是市场价折扣35％。梦城机构规模可能较小以及它的产品不获普遍认同，但是该公司有巨大潜能，折扣是过于苛刻。这只股预测有很好的5.9％收益率，目前是以价格对账面值0.45倍进行交易。
虽然赌场业面对巨大挑战，但是情况将不会持续以及接着2至3年内应改善。澳门以及在新加坡的综合休闲胜地最终将成为亚洲旅游业主要据点，柬埔寨应可保持它的优势。在菲律宾需求也可持续，因为持有赌场执照的主题公园即将开幕。
Source
该公司在2004年1月在自动报价市场挂牌上市，以及去年1月转至主要交易板。董事经理拿督蔡金城（译音）是它的最大股东持股38.7％，执行董事马芝兰依斯迈则透过Gerak Juara私人有限公司持股18.6％。
梦城机构在1980年代进军博彩行业，获颁发执照分销电子博彩机给国内博彩业经营公司，包括云顶（GENTING，3182，主板贸易服务组）。此后，该公司已开拓更大市场，目前它的电子博彩机销售至本区域多个国家，例如新加坡、澳门、菲律宾、韩国、越南，柬埔寨、印度以及寮国。它的业务模式也逐渐发展，由原有的分销其他公司产品转移至研发与销售高盈利率的专利权产品，例如RGB博彩机。
梦城机构的RGB博彩机（通常是彩色款式）部门基于3个模式分销它的电子博彩机。第1个是直接销售，顾客一次付款购买；这是最简单以及风险最低的模式，梦城机构的盈利不会受到经营者亏盈影响。但是，电子博彩机售价昂贵（每架1万至2万美元）可能是经营者的沉重负担。此外，他们也须负担高昂的维修以及替换成本。
虽然直接销售剔除了信贷风险，但是盈利是一次过以及每年有变动。由于目前全球经济放缓，梦城机构专注于“租赁与拥有”模式。在这模式下，顾客向梦城机构租赁电子博彩机以及在议定期限内按时付款，期满后拥有权即转移给顾客。梦城机构考虑在它营业的其他国家彩用这模式。
最后一个模式是梦城机构将电子博彩机装置在经营者的店铺，以及根据机器专营权配套，与后者分享盈利。梦城机构将负责维修与技术支援，以及缴付一部份营业成本。每个经营者以及每个国家的盈利分享条件不同。
由于梦城机购拥有电子博彩机，它可以重新部署在盈利更高的国家，甚至是不同区域。一个重大进展是该公司与澳门赌场业巨仔旗下的一家联号公司签署机器专营权配套。该联号公司已在澳门两个地点开始营业，以及今年内将陆续设立更多营业地点。
梦城机构也在菲律宾扩充业务，今年1月签署9项新的专营权协议。它的机器专营权配套是最大收益来源，以及在2009年预测占55％营业额。
在机器专营权配套以及直接销售模式下，梦城机构今年将推出更多架专利权产品的RGB博彩机；但是没有反映在收益方面，因为新机器仍然在测试阶段。然而，该公司深信它的产品将会受到亚洲博彩业经营者欢迎。
在欣荣时期，由于现有博彩机深受欢迎，经营者不愿测试新机器。随着全球金融危机后营业放缓，经营者拨出更多空间装置梦城机构的电子博彩机。该公司预测今年销售至少500架专利权博彩机。这方面进展胥视它的研发能力，继续推出新款以及深受欢迎的博彩机。该公司有一支研发队伍，设计与制造新博彩机，迎合亚洲国家顾客的需求。
在这方面，梦城机构的优势可能不及它的国际同侪，例如Aristocrat，WMS工业，以及国际博彩科技（International Game Technology）。这些公司收益每年超过5亿美元，因此有更多研发资金。
梦城机构独资子公司Macrocept在柬埔寨与越南边界的Bavet市镇经营博彩业。该市镇吸引大量游客，政府致力发展该地区以及计划设立一家赌场。梦城机构计划今年次季在该地设立的Chateau De Bavet赌场将有大约200架博彩机，80张赌桌，以及70个酒店客房另加娱乐与饮食中心。该公司预测到了2010年，收益达到200万美元。
由于销售缓慢以及更多经营者减少开支，梦城机构的盈利在2008年下跌。随着该国政府决定控制过度赌博后，该公司在柬埔寨的一些营业据点可能关闭，因此须拨出耗损拨备金。
虽然梦城机构经营的赌场不受影响，但是该公司将博彩机迁移至盈利较高的其他赌场与俱乐部。今年的销售将继续疲软，但是专利权产品的盈利较高，将舒缓影响。
梦城机构致力扩充至其他国家，但是大约50％收益是来自柬埔寨，因此须面对该国政局以及外汇风险。
它的2009财年预测本益比2.9倍，与国际同侪比较有大幅折扣；估值也可能是市场价折扣35％。梦城机构规模可能较小以及它的产品不获普遍认同，但是该公司有巨大潜能，折扣是过于苛刻。这只股预测有很好的5.9％收益率，目前是以价格对账面值0.45倍进行交易。
虽然赌场业面对巨大挑战，但是情况将不会持续以及接着2至3年内应改善。澳门以及在新加坡的综合休闲胜地最终将成为亚洲旅游业主要据点，柬埔寨应可保持它的优势。在菲律宾需求也可持续，因为持有赌场执照的主题公园即将开幕。
Source
Friday, April 3, 2009
STI skyrockets 6% on recovery hopes
US data, G-20 optimism help fuel powerful Asian rally
(SINGAPORE) An improvement in US economic numbers ignited hopes yesterday that a recovery could be taking shape and sent the Straits Times Index up 101.08 points, or 5.9 per cent, to a three-month high of 1,803.34.
The rise was in tandem with gains elsewhere, led in the region by a 7 per cent jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and a 100-point rise in June futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Turnover here, excluding foreign currency issues, which dropped to a low $755 million on Wednesday, rose to 1.8 billion units worth $1.7 billion yesterday.
The last time the index closed at this level was Jan 9, when it ended at 1,806.02. In the three weeks since touching 1,456.95 on March 9, the index has gained 346.39 points, or 24 per cent, on hopes of a US-led economic recovery.
'Bear market rallies can be very powerful and can sometimes last a few months,' said a dealer, suggesting further upside is still possible. But most also admit that unless economic figures show clear signs of improvement, the upcoming earnings reporting season could slam the brakes on the market's rise.
Yesterday's push was fuelled by hopes that the US economy was improving, following improved residential construction figures and a manufacturing report that was bad, but not as bad as expected. Also helping were comments by officials that there are signs that coordinated international action to spur the global economy is gaining some traction.
'There's speculation that something good will come out of the G-20 meeting, so the buying is also in anticipation of this,' said a dealer. Leaders from the 20 nations started their meeting in London yesterday.
Assessing local news of a 13.8 per cent drop in private property prices in the first quarter, DMG & Partners said that although there will be more prospective buyers, most will only window-shop until prices become considerably more attractive.
'HDB prices should fall further on the back of economic weakness, job insecurity and filtering of interest into the mass market condominiums, which should result in an increase in bargaining power of buyers,' DMG said.
'While we are cognisant of units disposed at distressed prices in the secondary market, these remain selective ones. For the remaining year, we should see an increased quantum of such transactions, especially from the 10,000 units that will receive TOP (temporary occupation permits) in 2009. As such, we are keeping our neutral call for the property sector.'
In his latest market commentary dated April 1, fund manager Marc Faber said that the current bounce is because stock markets were heavily oversold and are experiencing a powerful bear market rally. 'While I do not expect any full-market recovery within the next few years (after that, we shall need to see how much money will be printed) I would not be surprised to see some further headway until summer 2009,' Dr Faber said.
'Very near-term, the stock market has become overbought and should correct. But for the immediate positive stance to be maintained, it is important that the November 2008 low of 741 for the S&P 500 not be violated on the downside.'
The S&P 500 closed at 811.08 on Wednesday.
Dr Faber also pointed out that although US residential construction appears to have stabilised, non-residential construction has only just started to contract, so talk of a recovery is premature.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Brokers' Take
Singapore strategy
CIMB-GK Research, April 1
MARKET is expecting the Monetary Authority of Singapore to allow the Singapore dollar to weaken this month. Consensus is predicting that MAS will lower the mid-point of the Singapore-dollar trading range by 2-4 per cent later this month. Our economist, Song Seng Wun, agrees that MAS might favour a weakening of the Singapore dollar, going by weak Q1 2009 GDP figures and receding inflation. However, he thinks that this would be done not by shifting the band downwards, but perhaps by changing the slope of the band. A weaker Singapore dollar would make exports more attractive. Our house continues to forecast a S$1.60 per US dollar exchange rate for end-2009.
We view the offshore and marine sector as a key immediate beneficiary. A lower Singapore dollar would also help exporters such as Venture Corp. Key losers should be companies that sell mostly to the local market, earning Singapore-dollar revenues, yet are dependent on raw materials quoted in US dollars. Obvious losers will be transport companies (SMRT Corp, Singapore Airlines and Singapore Post) where fuel ensures a relatively high US dollar-denominated cost base. Other companies with mostly Singapore dollar revenues and some US dollar costs are Singapore Press Holdings and StarHub.
While there might not be much of an operational effect on others, there could still be a significant translation impact. SingTel will derive some 72 per cent of its FY2010 pre-tax profit and 80 per cent of our sum-of-parts valuation from overseas operations, and stands to be a big beneficiary of a weaker Singapore dollar. Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) operators such as ST Engineering and SIA Engineering can also gain from positive translation of overseas revenues.
A weaker Singapore dollar is good for Singapore's export sector and its wilting tourism industry.
If tourist numbers can recover, stocks such as Genting International and CDL Hospitality Trusts could gain. Also, with the intended effect of a weaker currency being a slower rate of job losses and corporate bankruptcies, the move would be marginally positive for banks. The flipside is that a weaker Singapore dollar trend will be detrimental to investment prospects for property.
Maintain 'neutral' weight on the market and 1,800 Straits Times Index target.NEUTRAL
Singapore Reits
OCBC Investment Research, April 1
CONSENSUS forward yields, ranging from 7 per cent to 38 per cent, are showing a wide divergence in valuations across the Singapore real estate investment trust sector.
Our thesis is that the S-Reit sector is now broadly segregated into two camps - the 'haves' (large, blue-chip sponsored Reits with strong balance sheets) and the 'have-nots' (smaller, non-sponsored Reits with high gearing). Valuation catalysts also vary accordingly - we believe the market focus for the weaker 'have-nots' is still on their ability to secure refinancing but the focus for the 'haves' is on 1) how the macroeconomic picture affects earnings and 2) the need for equity issues to recapitalise balance sheets. Investors can expect some key data points on both the refinancing and the earnings fronts in the coming months.
MacarthurCook Industrial Reit (not rated) announced yesterday that it has received a 60-day extension for its loan facility worth $220.8 million maturing on April 18. MI-Reit is geared at almost 40 per cent and this facility constitutes the bulk of its borrowings. The extension buys MI-Reit some time to continue negotiations with its lenders, National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Its inability to secure a resolution by April is a disappointment, in our view.
MI-Reit's refinancing efforts will likely be benchmarked against the December 2008 refinancing completed by peer Cambridge Industrial Trust (not rated) as both are relatively smaller, non-sponsored and industrial focused.
We expect negative refinancing news to further widen the valuation gap between the two S-Reit classes. For the broader sector, such refinancing news may be indicative of lender-risk appetite. Tighter loan-to-value demands may trigger a sector-wide overhaul of capital structures, potentially via equity issues.
Most S-Reits should report earnings for the first quarter of calendar year 2009 over the last two weeks this month. We believe that H1 2009 earnings are worth watching as the impact of macroeconomic events slowly filters through to the S-Reit bottomline.
For the office sector, we will be watching the pace of the decline in achieved rents as well as any change in occupancy levels. Given the economic slowdown, occupancy levels will be the key metric to watch in the industrial space. We are also looking out for an update on the post-Chinese New Year retail landscape and validation of the consensus 'sub-urban means defensive' view. We leave our estimates and ratings for individual S-Reits unchanged in anticipation of Q1 results.NEUTRAL
CIMB-GK Research, April 1
MARKET is expecting the Monetary Authority of Singapore to allow the Singapore dollar to weaken this month. Consensus is predicting that MAS will lower the mid-point of the Singapore-dollar trading range by 2-4 per cent later this month. Our economist, Song Seng Wun, agrees that MAS might favour a weakening of the Singapore dollar, going by weak Q1 2009 GDP figures and receding inflation. However, he thinks that this would be done not by shifting the band downwards, but perhaps by changing the slope of the band. A weaker Singapore dollar would make exports more attractive. Our house continues to forecast a S$1.60 per US dollar exchange rate for end-2009.
We view the offshore and marine sector as a key immediate beneficiary. A lower Singapore dollar would also help exporters such as Venture Corp. Key losers should be companies that sell mostly to the local market, earning Singapore-dollar revenues, yet are dependent on raw materials quoted in US dollars. Obvious losers will be transport companies (SMRT Corp, Singapore Airlines and Singapore Post) where fuel ensures a relatively high US dollar-denominated cost base. Other companies with mostly Singapore dollar revenues and some US dollar costs are Singapore Press Holdings and StarHub.
While there might not be much of an operational effect on others, there could still be a significant translation impact. SingTel will derive some 72 per cent of its FY2010 pre-tax profit and 80 per cent of our sum-of-parts valuation from overseas operations, and stands to be a big beneficiary of a weaker Singapore dollar. Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) operators such as ST Engineering and SIA Engineering can also gain from positive translation of overseas revenues.
A weaker Singapore dollar is good for Singapore's export sector and its wilting tourism industry.
If tourist numbers can recover, stocks such as Genting International and CDL Hospitality Trusts could gain. Also, with the intended effect of a weaker currency being a slower rate of job losses and corporate bankruptcies, the move would be marginally positive for banks. The flipside is that a weaker Singapore dollar trend will be detrimental to investment prospects for property.
Maintain 'neutral' weight on the market and 1,800 Straits Times Index target.NEUTRAL
Singapore Reits
OCBC Investment Research, April 1
CONSENSUS forward yields, ranging from 7 per cent to 38 per cent, are showing a wide divergence in valuations across the Singapore real estate investment trust sector.
Our thesis is that the S-Reit sector is now broadly segregated into two camps - the 'haves' (large, blue-chip sponsored Reits with strong balance sheets) and the 'have-nots' (smaller, non-sponsored Reits with high gearing). Valuation catalysts also vary accordingly - we believe the market focus for the weaker 'have-nots' is still on their ability to secure refinancing but the focus for the 'haves' is on 1) how the macroeconomic picture affects earnings and 2) the need for equity issues to recapitalise balance sheets. Investors can expect some key data points on both the refinancing and the earnings fronts in the coming months.
MacarthurCook Industrial Reit (not rated) announced yesterday that it has received a 60-day extension for its loan facility worth $220.8 million maturing on April 18. MI-Reit is geared at almost 40 per cent and this facility constitutes the bulk of its borrowings. The extension buys MI-Reit some time to continue negotiations with its lenders, National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Its inability to secure a resolution by April is a disappointment, in our view.
MI-Reit's refinancing efforts will likely be benchmarked against the December 2008 refinancing completed by peer Cambridge Industrial Trust (not rated) as both are relatively smaller, non-sponsored and industrial focused.
We expect negative refinancing news to further widen the valuation gap between the two S-Reit classes. For the broader sector, such refinancing news may be indicative of lender-risk appetite. Tighter loan-to-value demands may trigger a sector-wide overhaul of capital structures, potentially via equity issues.
Most S-Reits should report earnings for the first quarter of calendar year 2009 over the last two weeks this month. We believe that H1 2009 earnings are worth watching as the impact of macroeconomic events slowly filters through to the S-Reit bottomline.
For the office sector, we will be watching the pace of the decline in achieved rents as well as any change in occupancy levels. Given the economic slowdown, occupancy levels will be the key metric to watch in the industrial space. We are also looking out for an update on the post-Chinese New Year retail landscape and validation of the consensus 'sub-urban means defensive' view. We leave our estimates and ratings for individual S-Reits unchanged in anticipation of Q1 results.NEUTRAL
Shares close 5.94% higher
SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed 5.94 per cent higher on Thursday, mirroring gains in regional markets following Wall Street's overnight bounce.
The Straits Times Index rose 101.08 points to 1,803.34. Volume traded totalled 1.82 billion shares worth $1.66 billion (US$1.1 billion), and there were 417 rising issues, 107 losers while 673 issues were even.
A better-than-expected survey on the US manufacturing sector was the main reason behind the market optimism, dealers said.
'The market has for some time believed the global economy will take a long, long time to get out of the doldrums and that it'll go into depression,' a dealer at a foreign brokerage said.
'But now, we're seeing some data showing things are not as bad as thought, and that some of the pump-priming measures by governments are starting to take effect,' the dealer said.
Among the banks, DBS advanced 55 cents to $9, United Overseas Bank put on 68 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp was 25 cents higher at $5.05.
Singapore Airlines rose 32 cents to $10.56, Singapore Telecommunications gained two cents to $2.55 and Keppel Corp was 59 cents up at $5.77.
In the property sector, Keppel Land firmed 12 cents to $1.60, City Developments added 56 cents to $5.70 and CapitaLand was 25 cents stronger at $2.60.
The Straits Times Index rose 101.08 points to 1,803.34. Volume traded totalled 1.82 billion shares worth $1.66 billion (US$1.1 billion), and there were 417 rising issues, 107 losers while 673 issues were even.
A better-than-expected survey on the US manufacturing sector was the main reason behind the market optimism, dealers said.
'The market has for some time believed the global economy will take a long, long time to get out of the doldrums and that it'll go into depression,' a dealer at a foreign brokerage said.
'But now, we're seeing some data showing things are not as bad as thought, and that some of the pump-priming measures by governments are starting to take effect,' the dealer said.
Among the banks, DBS advanced 55 cents to $9, United Overseas Bank put on 68 cents to $10.48 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp was 25 cents higher at $5.05.
Singapore Airlines rose 32 cents to $10.56, Singapore Telecommunications gained two cents to $2.55 and Keppel Corp was 59 cents up at $5.77.
In the property sector, Keppel Land firmed 12 cents to $1.60, City Developments added 56 cents to $5.70 and CapitaLand was 25 cents stronger at $2.60.
Las Vegas Sands says to resume Macau projects in 2009
HONG KONG, April 2 (Reuters) - Las Vegas Sands said on Thursday it aims to resume construction of its stalled Macau projects by year-end with talks now ongoing with potential new investors to restart the half-finished Cotai strip projects.
"We are certainly looking to resume in this calender year, keeping in mind that when we suspended these works, we were only about nine months off from opening the first phase," Stephen Weaver, the firm's Asia President told reporters.
Weaver, however, wouldn't give specifics on who the investors might be though said it was not the Macau government.
The debt-straddled Sands said late last year it was halting any further casino expansion in Macau and laid off most of the 11,000 or so construction workers working on phase one of two plots of land on the Cotai strip.
Sands has said since last November it was in talks with a syndicate of banks to secure funding of around US$1.5 to 2 billion to finance its stalled projects, which are a stone's throw from its gargantuan Venetian Macau casino resort, the world's largest casino, also on the stretch of reclaimed land in Macau called the Cotai Strip fashioned after Las Vegas' famed neon alley.
Sands also said they were on track to open the first phase of its US$5.4 billion Marina Bay Sands in Singapore by the end of this year, and there was no risk with regard to funds drying up.
"The company has funds available at the parent level which if needed, could be used to complete the project. I think you should rest assured that this would be financed," said Weaver.
Source
"We are certainly looking to resume in this calender year, keeping in mind that when we suspended these works, we were only about nine months off from opening the first phase," Stephen Weaver, the firm's Asia President told reporters.
Weaver, however, wouldn't give specifics on who the investors might be though said it was not the Macau government.
The debt-straddled Sands said late last year it was halting any further casino expansion in Macau and laid off most of the 11,000 or so construction workers working on phase one of two plots of land on the Cotai strip.
Sands has said since last November it was in talks with a syndicate of banks to secure funding of around US$1.5 to 2 billion to finance its stalled projects, which are a stone's throw from its gargantuan Venetian Macau casino resort, the world's largest casino, also on the stretch of reclaimed land in Macau called the Cotai Strip fashioned after Las Vegas' famed neon alley.
Sands also said they were on track to open the first phase of its US$5.4 billion Marina Bay Sands in Singapore by the end of this year, and there was no risk with regard to funds drying up.
"The company has funds available at the parent level which if needed, could be used to complete the project. I think you should rest assured that this would be financed," said Weaver.
Source
牛熊交锋之时该关注哪些股票？
尽管周五的就业数据可能令人失望，20国峰会也难以令人鼓舞或者实现团结，但引人注目的是，股市却出现了上涨。
最明显的利好来自于就业市场之外的经济数据。供应管理协会(ISM)制造业调查尽管依然疲弱，但也略有增强，成屋待完成销售量出人意料地温和上扬。
虽然经济环境仍然相当暗淡，但事情可能不会再变得更糟的观点开始占据上风。包括美国联邦储备委员会主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在内的诸多美联储官员都对此发表了略显乐观的评论。
然而，一些相反的数据让前景依然难以琢磨。2月份建筑数据温和走强，但经济学家预计非住宅房地产领域的收缩让这份报告黯然失色。ADP的调查预计，周五的3月份就业报告可能再次令人震惊，当月失业人口可能超过70万人。
可用于观察牛熊之争的主要股票仍包括摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)、花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、通用电气(General Electric Co.)、微软(Microsoft Corp.)和3M公司(3M Co.)。
摩根大通和花旗的交易受到了各种金融系统救助计划前景的影响，其中也包括20国峰会可能推出的各项方案。
通用电气的交易在某种程度上有赖于金融系统的健康稳定，但鉴于该公司遍布全球的许多业务，它也同全球经济增长的前景有关。它的10美元保卫战是目前市场上的重头戏之一。3M公司也是这样，尤其是由于其“上游”业务同全球的大量制造业活动有关。
拥有雄厚现金和良好商业前景的微软的交易同对科技投资、升级和企业界信心恢复的预期有关。随着牛熊大战的白热化，关注这些股票将使投资者了解谁会最终获胜以及个中的原因。
最明显的利好来自于就业市场之外的经济数据。供应管理协会(ISM)制造业调查尽管依然疲弱，但也略有增强，成屋待完成销售量出人意料地温和上扬。
虽然经济环境仍然相当暗淡，但事情可能不会再变得更糟的观点开始占据上风。包括美国联邦储备委员会主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在内的诸多美联储官员都对此发表了略显乐观的评论。
然而，一些相反的数据让前景依然难以琢磨。2月份建筑数据温和走强，但经济学家预计非住宅房地产领域的收缩让这份报告黯然失色。ADP的调查预计，周五的3月份就业报告可能再次令人震惊，当月失业人口可能超过70万人。
可用于观察牛熊之争的主要股票仍包括摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)、花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、通用电气(General Electric Co.)、微软(Microsoft Corp.)和3M公司(3M Co.)。
摩根大通和花旗的交易受到了各种金融系统救助计划前景的影响，其中也包括20国峰会可能推出的各项方案。
通用电气的交易在某种程度上有赖于金融系统的健康稳定，但鉴于该公司遍布全球的许多业务，它也同全球经济增长的前景有关。它的10美元保卫战是目前市场上的重头戏之一。3M公司也是这样，尤其是由于其“上游”业务同全球的大量制造业活动有关。
拥有雄厚现金和良好商业前景的微软的交易同对科技投资、升级和企业界信心恢复的预期有关。随着牛熊大战的白热化，关注这些股票将使投资者了解谁会最终获胜以及个中的原因。
亚太股市周四强劲上扬
亚太股市周四大多强劲上扬，纷纷创下数月新高。金融及汽车类股领涨大盘。
东京股市大幅上涨，创出2009年以来第三大单日点数涨幅，市场交投旺盛。推动股市上涨的因素包括美国经济数据令人看到一丝希望，且欧洲退休基金带来强劲买盘。日经指数上涨367.87点，至8719.78点，涨幅4.4%，距离盘中高点不远。该指数在过去两个交易日中上涨7.5%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数上涨32.87点，至826.69点，涨幅4.1%，创出今年第二大单日点数涨幅。成交量近30亿股，为2009年迄今交投最旺盛的一个交易日。大阪证交所，六月日经指数期货收盘涨310点，至8690点，涨幅3.7%。
香港股市收盘大幅走高，受汇丰控股(HSBC)及地产类股强劲上扬提振，在一定程度上得益于有关美国经济即将走出谷底的预期。恒生指数收盘涨1,002.43点，至14,521.97点，涨幅7.4%，盘中一度涨至14,533.34点。今日成交额总计752.2亿港元，高于周三的528.2亿港元。
中国股市收盘创下逾7个月新高，因强劲业绩预期推动金融类股上扬。上证综合指数收盘涨0.7%，至2425.29点，创下去年8月21日收于2431.72点以来的最高收盘点位，盘中最高见2450.00点。深证综合指数收盘涨0.8%，至805.12点。上海证交所股票成交额从周三的人民币1,691亿元升至人民币1,749亿元（约合256亿美元）。分析师们称，他们预计未来几个交易日内上证综合指数将维持涨势，并上探2500点的心理阻力位。过去14个交易日内，上证综合指数累计上涨了13.9%。
澳大利亚股市表现强于美国股市，因针对股市的资产配置增加推动亚洲市场飙升。个股大范围的强劲走势大有推动澳大利亚股市突破当前这轮涨势的高点之势。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨100.5点，至3680.2点，涨幅2.8%；盘中一度触及四个交易日高点3703.2点。
新加坡股市自1月份来首次突破1800点大关，受地产类股和大宗商品类股强劲上扬提振，一些市场人士认为全球经济可能已经触底。海峡时报指数收盘涨101.08点，至1,803.34点，涨幅5.9%，追随前夜美国股市及今日亚洲其他股市涨势。
东京股市大幅上涨，创出2009年以来第三大单日点数涨幅，市场交投旺盛。推动股市上涨的因素包括美国经济数据令人看到一丝希望，且欧洲退休基金带来强劲买盘。日经指数上涨367.87点，至8719.78点，涨幅4.4%，距离盘中高点不远。该指数在过去两个交易日中上涨7.5%。包括东京证交所一部所有股票的东证指数上涨32.87点，至826.69点，涨幅4.1%，创出今年第二大单日点数涨幅。成交量近30亿股，为2009年迄今交投最旺盛的一个交易日。大阪证交所，六月日经指数期货收盘涨310点，至8690点，涨幅3.7%。
香港股市收盘大幅走高，受汇丰控股(HSBC)及地产类股强劲上扬提振，在一定程度上得益于有关美国经济即将走出谷底的预期。恒生指数收盘涨1,002.43点，至14,521.97点，涨幅7.4%，盘中一度涨至14,533.34点。今日成交额总计752.2亿港元，高于周三的528.2亿港元。
中国股市收盘创下逾7个月新高，因强劲业绩预期推动金融类股上扬。上证综合指数收盘涨0.7%，至2425.29点，创下去年8月21日收于2431.72点以来的最高收盘点位，盘中最高见2450.00点。深证综合指数收盘涨0.8%，至805.12点。上海证交所股票成交额从周三的人民币1,691亿元升至人民币1,749亿元（约合256亿美元）。分析师们称，他们预计未来几个交易日内上证综合指数将维持涨势，并上探2500点的心理阻力位。过去14个交易日内，上证综合指数累计上涨了13.9%。
澳大利亚股市表现强于美国股市，因针对股市的资产配置增加推动亚洲市场飙升。个股大范围的强劲走势大有推动澳大利亚股市突破当前这轮涨势的高点之势。基准S&P/ASX 200指数收盘涨100.5点，至3680.2点，涨幅2.8%；盘中一度触及四个交易日高点3703.2点。
新加坡股市自1月份来首次突破1800点大关，受地产类股和大宗商品类股强劲上扬提振，一些市场人士认为全球经济可能已经触底。海峡时报指数收盘涨101.08点，至1,803.34点，涨幅5.9%，追随前夜美国股市及今日亚洲其他股市涨势。
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
技術分析的操作原則
由技術分析定義得知，其主要內容有圖表解析與技術指標兩大類。事實上早期的技術分析只是單純的圖表解析，亦即透過市場行為所構成的圖表型態，來推測未來的股價變動趨勢。但因這種方法在實際運用上，易受個人主觀意識影響，而有不同的判斷。這也就是為什麼許多人戲稱圖表解析是一項藝術工作，九個人可能產生十種結論的原因。
為減少圖表判斷的主觀性，市場逐漸發展一些可運用數據計算的方式，來輔助個人對圖形型態的知覺與辨認，使分析更具客觀性。
從事技術分析時，有下述11項基本操作原則可供遵循：
1.股價的漲跌情況呈一種不規則的變化，但整個走勢卻有明顯的趨勢，也就是說，雖然在圖表上看不出第二天或下周的股價是漲是跌，但在整個長期的趨勢上，仍有明顯的軌跡可循。
2.一旦一種趨勢開始後，即難以制止或轉變。這個原則意指當一種股票呈現上漲或下跌趨勢後，不會於短期內產生一百八十度的轉彎，但須注意，這個原則是指純粹的市場心理而言，並不適用於重大利空或利多消息出現時。
3.除非有肯定的技術確認指標出現，否則應認為原來趨勢仍會持續發展。
4.未來的趨勢可由線本身推論出來。基於這個原則，我們可在線路圖上依整個頭部或底部的延伸線明確畫出往後行情可能發展的趨勢。
5.任何特定方向的主要趨勢經常遭反方向力量阻擋而改變，但1/3或2/3幅度的波動對整個延伸趨勢的預測影響不會太大。也就是說，假設個別股票在一段上漲幅度為三元的行情中，回檔一元甚至二元時，仍不應視為上漲趨勢已經反轉只要不超過2/3的幅度，仍應認為整個趨勢屬於上升行情中。
6.股價橫向發展數天甚至數周時，可能有效地抵消反方向的力量。這種持續橫向整理的形態有可辨認的特性。
7.趨勢線的背離現象伴隨線路的正式反轉而產生，但這並不具有必然性。換句話說，這個這個原則具有相當的可靠性，但並非沒有例外。
8.依據道氏理論的推斷，股價趨勢產生關鍵性變化之前，必然有可資辨認的形態出現。例如，頭肩頂出現時，行情可能反轉；頭肩底形成時，走勢會向上突破。
9.在線路產生變化的關鍵時刻，個別股票的成交量必定含有特定意義。例如，線路向上挺升的最初一段時間，成交量必定配合擴增；線路反轉時，成交量必定隨著萎縮。
10.市場上的強勢股票有可能有持續的優良表現，而弱勢股票的疲態也可能持續一段時間。我們不必從是否有主力介入的因素來探討這個問題，只從最單純的追漲心理即可印證此項原則。
11．在個別股票的日線圖或周線圖中，可清楚分辨出支撐區及抵抗區。這兩種區域可用來確認趨勢將持續發展或是完全反轉。假設線路已向上突破抵抗區，那麼股價可能繼續上揚，一旦向下突破支撐區，則股價可能再現低潮。
為減少圖表判斷的主觀性，市場逐漸發展一些可運用數據計算的方式，來輔助個人對圖形型態的知覺與辨認，使分析更具客觀性。
從事技術分析時，有下述11項基本操作原則可供遵循：
1.股價的漲跌情況呈一種不規則的變化，但整個走勢卻有明顯的趨勢，也就是說，雖然在圖表上看不出第二天或下周的股價是漲是跌，但在整個長期的趨勢上，仍有明顯的軌跡可循。
2.一旦一種趨勢開始後，即難以制止或轉變。這個原則意指當一種股票呈現上漲或下跌趨勢後，不會於短期內產生一百八十度的轉彎，但須注意，這個原則是指純粹的市場心理而言，並不適用於重大利空或利多消息出現時。
3.除非有肯定的技術確認指標出現，否則應認為原來趨勢仍會持續發展。
4.未來的趨勢可由線本身推論出來。基於這個原則，我們可在線路圖上依整個頭部或底部的延伸線明確畫出往後行情可能發展的趨勢。
5.任何特定方向的主要趨勢經常遭反方向力量阻擋而改變，但1/3或2/3幅度的波動對整個延伸趨勢的預測影響不會太大。也就是說，假設個別股票在一段上漲幅度為三元的行情中，回檔一元甚至二元時，仍不應視為上漲趨勢已經反轉只要不超過2/3的幅度，仍應認為整個趨勢屬於上升行情中。
6.股價橫向發展數天甚至數周時，可能有效地抵消反方向的力量。這種持續橫向整理的形態有可辨認的特性。
7.趨勢線的背離現象伴隨線路的正式反轉而產生，但這並不具有必然性。換句話說，這個這個原則具有相當的可靠性，但並非沒有例外。
8.依據道氏理論的推斷，股價趨勢產生關鍵性變化之前，必然有可資辨認的形態出現。例如，頭肩頂出現時，行情可能反轉；頭肩底形成時，走勢會向上突破。
9.在線路產生變化的關鍵時刻，個別股票的成交量必定含有特定意義。例如，線路向上挺升的最初一段時間，成交量必定配合擴增；線路反轉時，成交量必定隨著萎縮。
10.市場上的強勢股票有可能有持續的優良表現，而弱勢股票的疲態也可能持續一段時間。我們不必從是否有主力介入的因素來探討這個問題，只從最單純的追漲心理即可印證此項原則。
11．在個別股票的日線圖或周線圖中，可清楚分辨出支撐區及抵抗區。這兩種區域可用來確認趨勢將持續發展或是完全反轉。假設線路已向上突破抵抗區，那麼股價可能繼續上揚，一旦向下突破支撐區，則股價可能再現低潮。
丽星邮轮(HK)08年亏损减少至7,951万美元
[世华财讯]丽星邮轮宣布，截至08年12月31日全年亏损减少至7,951万美元，每股亏损0.0107美元，公司不派末期息。
丽星邮轮(00678)4月1日发布公告称，截至08年12月31日止全年业绩，取得股东应占亏损7,951万美元，每股亏损0.0107美元，公司不派末期息。该公司07年同期取得亏损2.01亿美元。
Source
丽星邮轮(00678)4月1日发布公告称，截至08年12月31日止全年业绩，取得股东应占亏损7,951万美元，每股亏损0.0107美元，公司不派末期息。该公司07年同期取得亏损2.01亿美元。
Source
3 foreign investors interested in RP's 'mini-Las Vegas' complex
MANILA, Philippines - Three investors from South Korea, Europe, and the United States have expressed interest in helping build an entertainment complex on top of reclaimed land along Manila Bay, an official said.
All three companies have submitted their respective proposals to help construct a “total entertainment complex" called Bagong Nayong Pilipino-Manila Bay Integrated City, Efraim C.
Genuino, Chair and chief executive officer of the state-run Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (Pagcor).
The project will be located on a 120 hectare property along Manila Bay.
Genuino declined to reveal the identities of the prospective investors, as the agency is still “investigating" them, a process that will last six months, he said.
Minimum cost of the project – to be considered as the Philippines’ Las Vegas – will reach $1 billion, consisting of both equity and debt.
Of this total project cost, at least 40 percent of the total project cost must be invested within a period of two years from site delivery for Pagcor-owned land or from the date of signing of the provisional license.
Investors are required to submit a concept for their investment, Genuino said, declining to identify the kind of businesses the three investors will engage in.
“Only three percent of the entire development is in gaming," Genuino said at the sidelines of the 4th Asia's Gaming and Entertainment + Lesiure Expo Manila (Asia's GEM) 2009 which opened in Manila on Wednesday.
“There will be lots of tourist attractions including sports arenas and a museum. All of [prospective investors] are global operators."
Investors will be announced within the year since the agency is already putting finishing touches in terms of concept and design, he said.
Based on the terms of reference, applicants must have the financial capability and a well-established experience in the hotel and gaming business.
Applicants who are principally financial investors are also welcome but will be required to engage qualified hotel and gaming operations entities whether organizations or individuals, who have the track record in organizing and operating world-class hotel and gaming projects.
Japan-based Aruze Corp., Malaysia’s Genting Berhad Group, and Sy-led SM Investments Corp., which secured approval to join the project, will develop at least 100 hectares of the reclaimed land.
Source
All three companies have submitted their respective proposals to help construct a “total entertainment complex" called Bagong Nayong Pilipino-Manila Bay Integrated City, Efraim C.
Genuino, Chair and chief executive officer of the state-run Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. (Pagcor).
The project will be located on a 120 hectare property along Manila Bay.
Genuino declined to reveal the identities of the prospective investors, as the agency is still “investigating" them, a process that will last six months, he said.
Minimum cost of the project – to be considered as the Philippines’ Las Vegas – will reach $1 billion, consisting of both equity and debt.
Of this total project cost, at least 40 percent of the total project cost must be invested within a period of two years from site delivery for Pagcor-owned land or from the date of signing of the provisional license.
Investors are required to submit a concept for their investment, Genuino said, declining to identify the kind of businesses the three investors will engage in.
“Only three percent of the entire development is in gaming," Genuino said at the sidelines of the 4th Asia's Gaming and Entertainment + Lesiure Expo Manila (Asia's GEM) 2009 which opened in Manila on Wednesday.
“There will be lots of tourist attractions including sports arenas and a museum. All of [prospective investors] are global operators."
Investors will be announced within the year since the agency is already putting finishing touches in terms of concept and design, he said.
Based on the terms of reference, applicants must have the financial capability and a well-established experience in the hotel and gaming business.
Applicants who are principally financial investors are also welcome but will be required to engage qualified hotel and gaming operations entities whether organizations or individuals, who have the track record in organizing and operating world-class hotel and gaming projects.
Japan-based Aruze Corp., Malaysia’s Genting Berhad Group, and Sy-led SM Investments Corp., which secured approval to join the project, will develop at least 100 hectares of the reclaimed land.
Source
Shares edge up 0.13%
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) rose 2.27 points to 1,702.26 on volume of 822 million shares worth $755 million (US$496 million).
Gainers edged losers 196 to 174, with 835 issues unchanged.
Dealers said the STI would most likely head higher in the near term, but with concerns over the economy weighing on investor sentiment.
'We are inclined towards the view that there will be a sizeable rally due to the (low) interest rate environment engineered by the Federal Reserve,' said Phua Ming-weii, an analyst at Phillip Securities.
However, the analyst cautioned that the STI remained volatile, as 'markets very seldom move in a straight line'.
Singapore, a trade-dependent nation, is facing its worst recession in more than 40 years due to weakening global demand for its exports.
Banking shares closed mixed, with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp easing four cents to $4.80, United Overseas Bank gaining eight cents to $9.80 and DBS remaining at $8.45.
Among property shares, CapitaLand edged up two cents to $2.35, City Developments ended four cents higher at $5.14 and Keppel Land closed up three cents at $1.48.
Singapore Airlines advanced 24 cents to $10.24 while Singapore Telecommunications was unchanged at $2.53.
Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries gained four cents to $2.39 and real estate developer Yanlord Land Group rose seven cents to $1.19.
Gainers edged losers 196 to 174, with 835 issues unchanged.
Dealers said the STI would most likely head higher in the near term, but with concerns over the economy weighing on investor sentiment.
'We are inclined towards the view that there will be a sizeable rally due to the (low) interest rate environment engineered by the Federal Reserve,' said Phua Ming-weii, an analyst at Phillip Securities.
However, the analyst cautioned that the STI remained volatile, as 'markets very seldom move in a straight line'.
Singapore, a trade-dependent nation, is facing its worst recession in more than 40 years due to weakening global demand for its exports.
Banking shares closed mixed, with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp easing four cents to $4.80, United Overseas Bank gaining eight cents to $9.80 and DBS remaining at $8.45.
Among property shares, CapitaLand edged up two cents to $2.35, City Developments ended four cents higher at $5.14 and Keppel Land closed up three cents at $1.48.
Singapore Airlines advanced 24 cents to $10.24 while Singapore Telecommunications was unchanged at $2.53.
Investment holding company Sembcorp Industries gained four cents to $2.39 and real estate developer Yanlord Land Group rose seven cents to $1.19.
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