Friday, January 11, 2008

Shanghai copper up 2.7 pct, LME rallies 2 pct

SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper rose 2.7 percent on Friday, supported by a late surge in domestic spot prices and gains in London on growing expectations of an aggressive U.S. interest rate cut.

The March copper contract, the most active on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose 1,670 yuan or 2.7 percent to 62,520 yuan ($8,598) a tonne at the close, more than recovering from a 1.7 percent fall on Thursday.

"There was a late surge in Shanghai spot prices starting about half an hour before the close, and that fed into futures prices," a dealer in Shanghai said.

"The buying was triggered by talk that supplies of electrolytic copper are tight, despite the modest stock rise we saw," he said.

Spot copper prices in Shanghai jumped to 63,000 yuan late in the day from between 62,300 and 62,650 yuan at midday.

Weekly Shanghai inventories recorded a 2,039-tonne rise to 26,187 tonnes, at the bottom end of market expectations, but enough to snap almost two months of falls.

Chinese customs data showed the country imported 224,553 tonnes of copper, including semi-fabricated products, in December, versus 223,777 tonnes in November.

Imports in 2007 rose 34.8 percent to 2.78 million tonnes.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.9 percent or $135 to $7,325 a tonne at 0744 GMT.

Copper has stalled since hitting a two-month high of $7,450 on Wednesday, but upside appetite could return after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was ready to act aggressively to boost economic growth.

"Copper needed to pull back from the mid-week high. Support at $7,100 held," an LME dealer in Hong Kong said.

"Bernanke's statement and falling stocks mean that the longer we can stay up at these levels, the more likely we will be to break out on the upside," the dealer said.

Interest rate futures are now pricing in a greater than 90 percent chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut when the Fed meets on Jan. 29-30.

That could depress the U.S. currency, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Bulls were also heartened by a 1,100-tonne decline in LME copper stocks to 199,650 tonnes on Thursday.

The level of cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for removal from LME warehouses -- rose to 27,725 tonnes from 25,600, hinting that declines were likely to continue.

"The increase in cancelled warrants reflects the demand for spot material derived largely from physical related consumption," brokerage Triland Metals said in a note.

Other traders said the declines were associated with merchants trying to profit from strong spot prices in China and the country's abolition of a 2 percent import duty on refined copper by shipping in metal from the international market.

That could result in a significant increase in China's copper stocks and weigh on domestic prices.

Shanghai's zinc contract rose 130 yuan to 20,400 yuan, paring a little of Thursday's slide when the market dropped by its 4 percent daily limit.

LME aluminium fell $1 at $2,489.

"Aluminium is probably going to continue its range-trading pattern. It should see scale-down support from $2,470 to $2,450, while $2,510 will be the top of the range," the LME trader said.

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